The Tucson real estate market hit a milestone in February: The median price dipped below $200,000 for the first time in almost three years.
1. Comment by James M. (Jim Bob)— March 12,2008 @ 5:50AM
Ratings:-3+14
Doubt if this will help when it comes to sales. As I understand it, the median price is merely the middle point of house sales. If you have a house sell for $20,000, one for $30,000 and one for $500,000, the median is $30,000. You have to be extremely lucky to find the one house for $30,000. On the other hand, the average cost of housing is over $250,000, according to the article. That means that most of the houses are going to be about a quarter million in price, which doesn't really help those seeking that "under $200,000" house. In the above example of three houses, the average price of the three houses is $183,333 and change, which is a far cry from the median of $30,000.
Well, at least the ADS is trying to put a positive spin on housing prices. But I am reminded what a former engineer boss of mine used to say about statistics - liars figure figures lie.
2. Comment by Radford J. (centerfire)— March 12,2008 @ 7:08AM
Ratings:-9+15
Median - Average
Doesn't really matter because you'll need to strap yourself in and get ready for the bottom to really fall out. We've only just begun. The good news: Affordable housing will be here soon.
Let's see.....$226k minus $200k is about $26k or 13% down from peak median prices in nominal terms. 9% of that was in the last year alone according to the TAR, so we are really just getting this much-needed price correction underway. This is not inflation adjusted of course, so add 4% a year (a generous number) for the last 2 years to that and you get (-13%) + (-8%) or a 21% decline in real terms since peak prices were set in November 2005.
Yet I just received a letter this week from a REALTOR assuring me that Tucson was different and wouldn't experience the price declines the rest of the state, and country are experiencing. What a joke! I guess they did not receive this nugget of information from their leaders before sending their outright lies out to dozens (hundreds?) of recipients.
It all comes down to price people! Prices are still ridiculously high for this area. You can list any number of meaningless reasons why Tucson is special but if we rank 40th out of 330 metro areas in level of overvaluation, that is still too high!
Sellers need to get real with their insultingly high asking prices if they want to have a chance of selling in 2008. Otherwise they are going to continue to ride this market down further.
7. Comment by mari a. (mariansaz)— March 12,2008 @ 8:25AM
Ratings:-0+6
You know, it's interesting you brought appraisers Adrian. I was watching Glen Beck last night and he had a segment on appraisers and their contribution to this mess.
In the segment it was pointed out that banks have been employing the same appraisers they have been using and pressuring them to inflate the appraisals. In fact the industry nickname for these appraisers was "The 10 percenters". They also said that as many as 80% of the appraisers out there have been involved in this practice.
They went on to state that new regulations are now being discussed to prevent this from happening again.
8. Comment by Cambell R. (Cambell)— March 12,2008 @ 8:48AM
Ratings:-2+11
Housing has not bottomed out. Prices are still inflated, especially here in Tucson.
Homes prices have fallen, but are still out of reach for families with a net income of $40k/yr.
With 40k/yr, no debt, you realistically qualify for around $145k. Lenders may quailify you for more, but all you can do is pay the mortgage/tax/insurance paycheck to paycheck.
9. Comment by Martha R. (azslim)— March 12,2008 @ 8:57AM
Ratings:-2+10
Conspicuously absent from this story is any mention of the local median income. Last I heard, it was around $35k a year. Which, according to historic standards, would mean that the median price of a house should be three times that amount, or around $105k.
In short, we still have a long way to go before local housing becomes affordable.
10. Comment by bud m. (bud man)— March 12,2008 @ 9:21AM
Ratings:-2+7
Yesterday the paper said I could rent a house for under $1100 per month. Today they gleefully anounce that the median price of a home is less than $200,000. So assuming I put 3% down and get a 6.5% FHA loan, the payment including principal, interest, taxes, insurance, MIP and probably an HOA fee would be about $1380 per month. Based on this analyses it is cheaper to rent so homes are overvalued. This calculation ignores any price appreciation but it may be several years before prices rise again, and by then inflation has wiped out my gain. My opinion is that, when the median priced home can't be bought with the median income of a community, then the homes are overvalued.
13. Comment by Tim S. (timsteller)— March 12,2008 @ 10:49AM
Ratings:-0+2
This is in reference to comment 1, which I think gets the concepts of median and average somewhat mixed up.
The reason for using a median, rather than an average, is precisely because the median represents the price of a typical home much better than an average does.
Say there were five sales in February: $175,000; $180,000; $200,000; $250,000; and $3 million. The median of those five sales is $200,000, which is fairly representative of the month's sales. But the average is $728,600 — wholly unrepresentative.
As in this example, you'll generally find the bulk of home sales clustered around the median price, not the average price. That's the whole idea.
14. Comment by Stephen C. (Crow Dog)— March 12,2008 @ 10:53AM
Ratings:-0+1
Let me direct your attention to the following balance sheet from Countywide:
Financials
[edit] 2005
For year-ending Dec 31, 2005, amounts in thousands of dollars. [1]
Total Assets: $235,085,370
Total Revenues: $13,016,708
Total Expenses: $5,868,942
Net Earnings: $2,528,090
Pre-tax Earnings by Segment:
Mortgage Banking: $2,434,525
Banking: $1,074,480
Capital Markets: $451,629
Insurance: $183,716
Global: $35,353
Other: $(31,937)
[edit] 2006
For year-ending Dec 31, 2006, amounts in thousands of dollars. [2]
Total Assets: $199,946,230
Total Revenues: $11,417,128
Total Expenses: $7,082,993
Net Earnings: $2,674,846
Pre-tax Earnings by Segment:
Mortgage Banking: $2,062,399
Banking: $1,380,384
Capital Markets: $553,500
Insurance: $320,133
Global: $28,642
Other: $(10,923)
In its 2006 annual report to the SEC, CFC disclosed that 19% of its subprime loans were delinquent.3
15. Comment by Stephen C. (Crow Dog)— March 12,2008 @ 10:55AM
Ratings:-0+3
In studying this I also noted that M3 money reporting requirement was done away with in 2006. I think that means the ability to hide assets was increased by the Fed?
16. Comment by Stephen C. (Crow Dog)— March 12,2008 @ 11:03AM
Ratings:-1+7
Consider the Fed response to "subprime results"...direct exchange of Fed assets with the banks for the bank's questionable subprime paper; 11 Mar 2008 action.
Doesn't this upset you? First the banks rob Americans of their wealth by encouraging risky lending and borrowing; then, rob the American people of the Fed's assets?
Stablizing the banks is the purpose of the Federal Reserve Act of 1907, but was it ever the purpose of this act to permit robbing of the American people on the scale that has occurred during the current administration?
Or, is this just another "invisible" ploy to pay for an unpopular war we can't afford; like the banking system did for all of our other unpopular wars?
You have to think? Maybe the American people just don't want to know the "nuts of bolts" of things. Maybe we just like to set back and complain while profit is made on this tendency we have.
17. Comment by Robert G. (TBird)— March 12,2008 @ 11:45AM
Ratings:-0+5
The common usage of "median" and "average" is a bit confusing. The article states a definition of "median" as the midpoint between all units involved, and then goes on to discuss ""average" as most of us might. An average is reached by totalling the prices of all units sold, then dividing by the number of units used in that calculation. The "median" more accurately finds the mid-point between the lowest and highest priced unit. "Median" thus calculated seems of little use in this discussion. I suspect the TAR is helping out the business community with a controlled set of data. My advice: keep your wallet in your pocket for a few more months. And all of this discussion has nothing to do with "paying for an unpopular war..." Rather it has much to do with unscrupulous lenders, appraisers, etc and blind buyers.
20. Comment by Bill B. (#4485)— March 12,2008 @ 1:09PM
Ratings:-0+6
nice thing about going the Army for me was, it got me my first house with the GI Bill. Great deal! Paid $675.00 and moved in. Kept that house till we got the current one. Great! Served its purpose, nice place, now its some other familys house. I remember when I first got it, can I afford it, then I remember all the overtime, had to sell a car and bike to get one payment I remember.. but that was then and now is now... hard work, works! Get all the house you can, work like hell! welcome to America! Debby, the answer is "don't make enough yet" work smarter not harder. It'll be yours in no time.. but only if you try.
21. Comment by James M. (Jim Bob)— March 12,2008 @ 1:14PM
Ratings:-0+0
#13 - What I stated in #1 is the same thing you stated. The median is a point where half of the houses cost less than the median and half of the houses cost more than the median. It is the middle price of the entire price range. It has nothing to do with the average cost of a house, and really misleads home buyers. Thank you Robert G for also clarifying this concept.
22. Comment by Sam L. (samlig)— March 12,2008 @ 1:23PM
Ratings:-2+6
You can buy two to three times as much house in the midwest for the same price as here in Tucson. Everything here is twice as expensive for no particularly good reason. A $175,000 home here would be about $85,000 there. Yup. Housing here is overpriced.
23. Comment by Alfred M. (Alfie2utoo)— March 12,2008 @ 1:26PM
Ratings:-0+5
I grew up in Tucson in the Broadway and Tucson Blvd. area. I now live in Boston for the last five years. I knew prices here were crazy but when I saw it happening in Tucson, it was hard to accept. Most of the houses between country Club and South of Arroyo Chico were tiny little houses selling for $35K to $50K in the early 90's. Now you're telling me they're worth $200,000? Hah! Not hardly. And, Broadmoor where so many of my classmates lived when we were attending St. Ambrose is priced ridiculously high. My daughter had me go out with her when I was visiting in Sept. 2006. Viewed a house Broadway and CC for $850K. 10 months later he had dropped it over $151,000. A lot of air in that inflated price. Heck, he would still have made over $200 grand in four years even at the lower price. Greedy! And, if Rick Hodges, CEO of The Realtor board says he, and TAR don't pay close attention to these little blips taking place month to month is one of the dumbest things I've heard from a man in the real estate business. I suggest you start paying attention Rick, there's still a lot of "air" that needs to come out of Tucson's prices before more than 715 people are going to buy houses next February. Sheeesh!
25. Comment by Wayne A. (WD)— March 12,2008 @ 5:54PM
Ratings:-1+3
Sam L #22. The main reason that houses in the Midwest are cheaper is that they are located in the Midwest! Snow, ice, tornados, cornfields. I'll take Tucson, thanks.
28. Comment by bud m. (bud man)— March 12,2008 @ 8:45PM
Ratings:-1+0
I remember an old Eagles song, something about they put up a bunch of ugly houses and people bought them. Stucco, sticks and styrofoam, best case they last 30 years.
29. Comment by Mark S. (Mark the Mailman)— March 12,2008 @ 8:52PM
Ratings:-1+1
I am still laughing too...
Gee, now you mean the house I bought over 20 years ago for $65,000 is now only worth slightly less than $200,000?
I should still try and sell, but, to whom? That is the question!
I would skate if any buyer offered me $100,000, but of course you know, it is all based on current resale value!
I think I will stay in a totally paid off mortgage free home during my retirement years...and leave it up to the rest of you to try and continue to inflate property values in a deflated economy...aka Tucson Arizona
30. Comment by UofA W. (desertstorm73)— March 12,2008 @ 10:21PM
Ratings:-2+1
come on now, in 1999, I bought a house for $85K that is priced now around $190K in the same neighborhood.
I'm in California and those who left with the equity and migrated to Tucson (and drove up the median value) sold their houses for $150K plus the true value of their homes to idiots who bought on the ARM.
I am about to buy a killer house out here and sell my condo. The cost for the new house (2100 sqft and 30 minutes from the beach).....$225K
Again, what does Tucson offer? A Rio project due to open when?????
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Home price median here below $200K
The Tucson real estate market hit a milestone in February: The median price dipped below $200,000 for the first time in almost three years.Doubt if this will help when it comes to sales. As I understand it, the median price is merely the middle point of house sales. If you have a house sell for $20,000, one for $30,000 and one for $500,000, the median is $30,000. You have to be extremely lucky to find the one house for $30,000. On the other hand, the average cost of housing is over $250,000, according to the article. That means that most of the houses are going to be about a quarter million in price, which doesn't really help those seeking that "under $200,000" house. In the above example of three houses, the average price of the three houses is $183,333 and change, which is a far cry from the median of $30,000.
Well, at least the ADS is trying to put a positive spin on housing prices. But I am reminded what a former engineer boss of mine used to say about statistics - liars figure figures lie.
Report this comment
Median - Average
Doesn't really matter because you'll need to strap yourself in and get ready for the bottom to really fall out. We've only just begun. The good news: Affordable housing will be here soon.
Report this comment
How do appraisals tie in? It would seem to be an almost ethical industry, right?
Something doesn't sound right about the math. Maybe it's just me... well, I'm not the only one. :)
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Good news! Housing is becoming more affordable!
For those who have - as they should have - saved some money for a down payment, it's a buyers' market!!
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A friend of mine said the buyers are all pretty much the same in the under $200,000 market.
They DON'T HAVE ANY MONEY AND EXPECT THE SELLER TO ACCEPT LOW BALL OFFERS AND THEN HELP WITH THE CLOSING COSTS.
I can understand the low ball offers if you have real CASH!!
OW I will just stay put and offer lease purchase and carry the financing myself.
No big deal and I get CASH FLOW too!
Report this comment
Let's see.....$226k minus $200k is about $26k or 13% down from peak median prices in nominal terms. 9% of that was in the last year alone according to the TAR, so we are really just getting this much-needed price correction underway. This is not inflation adjusted of course, so add 4% a year (a generous number) for the last 2 years to that and you get (-13%) + (-8%) or a 21% decline in real terms since peak prices were set in November 2005.
Yet I just received a letter this week from a REALTOR assuring me that Tucson was different and wouldn't experience the price declines the rest of the state, and country are experiencing. What a joke! I guess they did not receive this nugget of information from their leaders before sending their outright lies out to dozens (hundreds?) of recipients.
It all comes down to price people! Prices are still ridiculously high for this area. You can list any number of meaningless reasons why Tucson is special but if we rank 40th out of 330 metro areas in level of overvaluation, that is still too high!
Sellers need to get real with their insultingly high asking prices if they want to have a chance of selling in 2008. Otherwise they are going to continue to ride this market down further.
Report this comment
You know, it's interesting you brought appraisers Adrian. I was watching Glen Beck last night and he had a segment on appraisers and their contribution to this mess.
In the segment it was pointed out that banks have been employing the same appraisers they have been using and pressuring them to inflate the appraisals. In fact the industry nickname for these appraisers was "The 10 percenters". They also said that as many as 80% of the appraisers out there have been involved in this practice.
They went on to state that new regulations are now being discussed to prevent this from happening again.
Man this is all a big mess.
At any rate, that was the crux of the story.
Report this comment
Housing has not bottomed out. Prices are still inflated, especially here in Tucson.
Homes prices have fallen, but are still out of reach for families with a net income of $40k/yr.
With 40k/yr, no debt, you realistically qualify for around $145k. Lenders may quailify you for more, but all you can do is pay the mortgage/tax/insurance paycheck to paycheck.
Report this comment
Conspicuously absent from this story is any mention of the local median income. Last I heard, it was around $35k a year. Which, according to historic standards, would mean that the median price of a house should be three times that amount, or around $105k.
In short, we still have a long way to go before local housing becomes affordable.
Report this comment
Yesterday the paper said I could rent a house for under $1100 per month. Today they gleefully anounce that the median price of a home is less than $200,000. So assuming I put 3% down and get a 6.5% FHA loan, the payment including principal, interest, taxes, insurance, MIP and probably an HOA fee would be about $1380 per month. Based on this analyses it is cheaper to rent so homes are overvalued. This calculation ignores any price appreciation but it may be several years before prices rise again, and by then inflation has wiped out my gain. My opinion is that, when the median priced home can't be bought with the median income of a community, then the homes are overvalued.
Report this comment
RE #9, #10
Absolutely correct. And Tucson will continue to see more and more "for sale" signs up and vacant houses.
A lot of the boom was attributed to out of state investors which made Tucsonans with the median income in the dust.
Now that the investors have all but left, the house prices are still inflated and still leaving average Tucsonans in the dust.
Price adjustment is well underway, and those Tucsonans who DID by homes during the boom will see their equity get eaten away rapidly.
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Arizona Daily Star... Long Realty Company
www.azstarnet.com/business/227653
BEWARE OF LONG REALTY COMPANY!
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This is in reference to comment 1, which I think gets the concepts of median and average somewhat mixed up.
The reason for using a median, rather than an average, is precisely because the median represents the price of a typical home much better than an average does.
Say there were five sales in February: $175,000; $180,000; $200,000; $250,000; and $3 million. The median of those five sales is $200,000, which is fairly representative of the month's sales. But the average is $728,600 — wholly unrepresentative.
As in this example, you'll generally find the bulk of home sales clustered around the median price, not the average price. That's the whole idea.
Tim Steller
Business editor
Report this comment
Let me direct your attention to the following balance sheet from Countywide:
Financials
[edit] 2005
For year-ending Dec 31, 2005, amounts in thousands of dollars. [1]
Total Assets: $235,085,370
Total Revenues: $13,016,708
Total Expenses: $5,868,942
Net Earnings: $2,528,090
Pre-tax Earnings by Segment:
Mortgage Banking: $2,434,525
Banking: $1,074,480
Capital Markets: $451,629
Insurance: $183,716
Global: $35,353
Other: $(31,937)
[edit] 2006
For year-ending Dec 31, 2006, amounts in thousands of dollars. [2]
Total Assets: $199,946,230
Total Revenues: $11,417,128
Total Expenses: $7,082,993
Net Earnings: $2,674,846
Pre-tax Earnings by Segment:
Mortgage Banking: $2,062,399
Banking: $1,380,384
Capital Markets: $553,500
Insurance: $320,133
Global: $28,642
Other: $(10,923)
In its 2006 annual report to the SEC, CFC disclosed that 19% of its subprime loans were delinquent.3
Report this comment
In studying this I also noted that M3 money reporting requirement was done away with in 2006. I think that means the ability to hide assets was increased by the Fed?
Report this comment
Consider the Fed response to "subprime results"...direct exchange of Fed assets with the banks for the bank's questionable subprime paper; 11 Mar 2008 action.
Doesn't this upset you? First the banks rob Americans of their wealth by encouraging risky lending and borrowing; then, rob the American people of the Fed's assets?
Stablizing the banks is the purpose of the Federal Reserve Act of 1907, but was it ever the purpose of this act to permit robbing of the American people on the scale that has occurred during the current administration?
Or, is this just another "invisible" ploy to pay for an unpopular war we can't afford; like the banking system did for all of our other unpopular wars?
You have to think? Maybe the American people just don't want to know the "nuts of bolts" of things. Maybe we just like to set back and complain while profit is made on this tendency we have.
Report this comment
The common usage of "median" and "average" is a bit confusing. The article states a definition of "median" as the midpoint between all units involved, and then goes on to discuss ""average" as most of us might. An average is reached by totalling the prices of all units sold, then dividing by the number of units used in that calculation. The "median" more accurately finds the mid-point between the lowest and highest priced unit. "Median" thus calculated seems of little use in this discussion. I suspect the TAR is helping out the business community with a controlled set of data. My advice: keep your wallet in your pocket for a few more months. And all of this discussion has nothing to do with "paying for an unpopular war..." Rather it has much to do with unscrupulous lenders, appraisers, etc and blind buyers.
Report this comment
Most new homes I see aren't worth a quarter of the so-called "median" price. What a collection of junk!
Report this comment
Either way, they're all out of reach for me. Don't make enough!
Report this comment
nice thing about going the Army for me was, it got me my first house with the GI Bill. Great deal! Paid $675.00 and moved in. Kept that house till we got the current one. Great! Served its purpose, nice place, now its some other familys house. I remember when I first got it, can I afford it, then I remember all the overtime, had to sell a car and bike to get one payment I remember.. but that was then and now is now... hard work, works! Get all the house you can, work like hell! welcome to America! Debby, the answer is "don't make enough yet" work smarter not harder. It'll be yours in no time.. but only if you try.
Report this comment
#13 - What I stated in #1 is the same thing you stated. The median is a point where half of the houses cost less than the median and half of the houses cost more than the median. It is the middle price of the entire price range. It has nothing to do with the average cost of a house, and really misleads home buyers. Thank you Robert G for also clarifying this concept.
Report this comment
You can buy two to three times as much house in the midwest for the same price as here in Tucson. Everything here is twice as expensive for no particularly good reason. A $175,000 home here would be about $85,000 there. Yup. Housing here is overpriced.
Report this comment
I grew up in Tucson in the Broadway and Tucson Blvd. area. I now live in Boston for the last five years. I knew prices here were crazy but when I saw it happening in Tucson, it was hard to accept. Most of the houses between country Club and South of Arroyo Chico were tiny little houses selling for $35K to $50K in the early 90's. Now you're telling me they're worth $200,000? Hah! Not hardly. And, Broadmoor where so many of my classmates lived when we were attending St. Ambrose is priced ridiculously high. My daughter had me go out with her when I was visiting in Sept. 2006. Viewed a house Broadway and CC for $850K. 10 months later he had dropped it over $151,000. A lot of air in that inflated price. Heck, he would still have made over $200 grand in four years even at the lower price. Greedy! And, if Rick Hodges, CEO of The Realtor board says he, and TAR don't pay close attention to these little blips taking place month to month is one of the dumbest things I've heard from a man in the real estate business. I suggest you start paying attention Rick, there's still a lot of "air" that needs to come out of Tucson's prices before more than 715 people are going to buy houses next February. Sheeesh!
Report this comment
James M. (#21) Any time. My aviation training comes in handy, as in "Mean Aerodynamic Chord" (MAC). Any pro pilot would say the same. And
"What's it all about, Alfie?"
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Sam L #22. The main reason that houses in the Midwest are cheaper is that they are located in the Midwest! Snow, ice, tornados, cornfields. I'll take Tucson, thanks.
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Note to the Sellers in Tucson: You have a choice. Lower your price, keep making the payments or let the lender foreclose. The party is over.
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come on now, living in Tucson in a house "valued" over $150K is overrated!
Let's get real, what does Tucson have to offer?
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I remember an old Eagles song, something about they put up a bunch of ugly houses and people bought them. Stucco, sticks and styrofoam, best case they last 30 years.
Report this comment
I am still laughing too...
Gee, now you mean the house I bought over 20 years ago for $65,000 is now only worth slightly less than $200,000?
I should still try and sell, but, to whom? That is the question!
I would skate if any buyer offered me $100,000, but of course you know, it is all based on current resale value!
I think I will stay in a totally paid off mortgage free home during my retirement years...and leave it up to the rest of you to try and continue to inflate property values in a deflated economy...aka Tucson Arizona
Report this comment
come on now, in 1999, I bought a house for $85K that is priced now around $190K in the same neighborhood.
I'm in California and those who left with the equity and migrated to Tucson (and drove up the median value) sold their houses for $150K plus the true value of their homes to idiots who bought on the ARM.
I am about to buy a killer house out here and sell my condo. The cost for the new house (2100 sqft and 30 minutes from the beach).....$225K
Again, what does Tucson offer? A Rio project due to open when?????
Ha Ha Ha
Report this comment