Democrat Gabrielle Giffords holds a solid lead over Republican Randy Graf in the Congressional District 8 race, according to a poll of likely voters sponsored by the Arizona Daily Star and KVOA Channel 4.
1. Comment by Arthur W. (Diogenes)— September 24,2006 @ 12:12AM
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Carol Zimmerman, a long-time local Democratic consultant who ran the Star-sponsored poll
Hmmmm, No Bias here...
Guess the Star could not find an independent source to conduct the poll!
Are we surprised?
2. Comment by Gene M. (#5430)— September 24,2006 @ 12:26AM
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Will the Star run a detailed position
parallel on both Giffords vs Graf?
Graf =
Total Border Control No on Amnesty
Giffords =
Amnesty for all ILLEGALS.
(*She must need her yard work done cheap).
She will support Raising our taxes to pay for FREE education, Life Styles and Medical for the ILLEGALS>
She is Senor Raul in a Short Skirt.
Once she starts talking, every statement she makes will put another nail into her, ...
4. Comment by Ray G. (#3280)— September 24,2006 @ 5:36AM
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If voters in the 8th Congressional district want border security and no amnesty for illegal aliens, why Gabrielle Giffords. She promotes the comprehensive solution to our crises at the border. She acknowledges some path to citizenship must be provided for millions of illegals living in the shadows, but she says it is not amnesty. She wants a guest worker program, Bush style that allows 10-12 million illegal aliens to stay here if they pay back taxes --She says it is not amnesty. And for some reason Raul Grijalva supports her--the leader for amnesty and open borders.
5. Comment by Gene M. (#5430)— September 24,2006 @ 5:41AM
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Ray, good Dem talking points.
Ms.Giffords, like Senor Raul Grijalva, wants AMNESTY and that will result in OPEN BORDERS.
Elect her and we will get what we deserve. AMNESTY for ALL ILLEGALS now here and for ALL of the millions more that will SWARM in Border, the minuet she is sworn in.
7. Comment by Ross J. (#5973)— September 24,2006 @ 6:24AM
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When asked what the most important issue is in deciding whom to vote for, "border control/immigration" is the run-away leader, with nearly 46 percent saying that's what's most on their minds when it comes to this race.
Or, you could say . . .
When asked about the most important issue, less than half said it was border control/immigration.
8. Comment by Common Sens e. (Common Sense)— September 24,2006 @ 6:44AM
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Diogenes (great name, seeker of truth) makes a valid point and Ross J. plays with numbers except that he drew attention to the fact that CD8 voters appear quite docile and uninterested in issues in general.
Gene Buddha makes the best point. Once Repub. ad money left and Dem. ad money followed it was an admission that Graf was indeed done. Thank goodness. Unless voter apathy sets in, it's over.
9. Comment by Huffelschnautzer G. (Huffelschnautzer)— September 24,2006 @ 6:48AM
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the liberals are out bright and early thumbing down anybody who has a different opinion.
gabby is nothing but a liberal pretending to be a moderate. with her it will continue being an ongoing battle,for us citizens,to close the border.
amnesty? i will go break the law, and snatch a root beer from the fridge at circle k. then i will demand amnesty. if there are laws,they are there for a reason.
gabby has no original ideas.she will do as the liberals tell her. what a good girl, and obedient servant!
10. Comment by Dave P. (Dave11)— September 24,2006 @ 7:21AM
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You go, Giffords!
Vote Democrat in '06, esp. if you find the only (pathetic) thing you can do to defend the other party is to invoke the 'l' word in every other sentence.
11. Comment by Lena B. (Lena)— September 24,2006 @ 7:51AM
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How any thinking person could imagine that Giffords will accomplish what she claims in her commercials -when she had several years in the state legislature and did not, is beyond me. I guess the same people who voted for the City Council members who said they'd undo the garbage tax. Maybe that's the point though - status quo.
She advertises solar panels - where are mine? She says on her ads she supports oil independence then drives around in a big RV? Border security? Yes, for the illegal aliens.
She won't come out and debate Graf either so how does she plan to debate anyone in Congress and allegedly fight for the district?
12. Comment by jiff k. (#6100)— September 24,2006 @ 7:51AM
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Good poll... front page Gabby wins if you say so ,you paid for it. Why does the Star want an open border? Why does the Star charge 20.00 for a yard sale ad and 200.00 for help wanted ad??. They want Illegals to have jobs? This must be a Hearst owned paper?
14. Comment by Joann H. (jh)— September 24,2006 @ 8:19AM
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Good points Lena. The star makes so many claims based on hollow data, no one called me about a vote survey, and I'm independent. Hmmm me thinks there is a fly in the ointment.
And the star thinks they can send four puppy reporters out to the desert and write a huge front page epiphany observation that the borders cannot be sealed!!!!!!!!!! So I guess that means from the star point of view we should just all shut up and take the brainwashing. Think NOT.
16. Comment by Joann H. (jh)— September 24,2006 @ 8:25AM
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This is long but worth while:
http://rhodesian.server101.com/coming_darkness1.htm
The Coming Darkness
A Warning for Americans: A message from South Africa
20th March 2004
People used to say that South Africa was 20 years behind the rest of the Western world. Television, for example, came late to South Africa (but so did pornography and the gay rights movement).
Today, however, South Africa may be the grim model of the future Western world, for events in America reveal trends chillingly similar to those that destroyed our country.
America's structures are Western. Your Congress, your lobbying groups, your free speech, and the way ordinary Americans either get involved or ignore politics are peculiarly Western, not the way most of the world operates. But the fact that only about a third of Americans deem it important to vote is horrifying in light of how close you are to losing your western character.
Writing letters to the press, manning stands at country fairs, hosting fund-raising dinners, attending rallies, setting up conferences, writing to your Congressman - that is what you know, and that is what you are comfortable with. Those are the political methods you've created for yourselves to keep your country on track and to ensure political accountability.
But woe to you if - or more likely, when - the rules change. White Americans may soon find themselves unable or unwilling to stand up to challenge the new political methods that will be the inevitable result of the ethnic metamorphosis now taking place in America. Unable to cope with the new rules of the game - violence, mob riots, intimidation through accusation of racism, demands for proportionality cased on racial numbers, and all the other social and political weapons used by the have-nots to bludgeon treasure and power from the haves - Americans, like others before them, will no doubt cave in. They will compromise away their independence and ultimately their way of life.
That is exactly what happened to South Africa. I know because I was there and saw it happen.
Faced with revolution in the streets, strikes, civil unrest and the sheer terror and murder practiced by Nelson Mandela's African National Congress (ANC), the white government simply capitulated in order to achieve "peace."
Westerners need peace. They need order and stability. They are builders and planners. But what we got was the peace of the grave for our society.
The third world is different - different peoples with different pasts and different cultures. Yet Westerners continue to mistake the psychology of the Third World and its peoples. Sierra Leone and Zimbabwe are perfect examples of those mistakes. Sierra Leone is in perpetual civil war, and Zimbabwe - once thriving stable Rhodesia - is looting the very people (the white men) who feed the country. Yet Westerners do not admit the same kind of savagery could come to America when enough immigrants of the right type assert themselves. The fact is, Americans are sitting ducks for Third World exploitation of the Western conscience of compassion.
Those in the West who forced South Africa to surrender to the ANC and its leaders did not consider Africa to be the dangerous, corrupt, and savage place it is now in Zimbabwe and South Africa. Those Western politicians now have a similar problem looming on their own doorsteps: the demand for power and treasure from the non-western peoples inside the realm.
It is already too late for South Africa, but not for America if enough people strengthen their spine and take on the race terrorists, the armies of the "politically correct" and, most dangerous of all, the craven politicians who believe "compassionate conservatism" will buy them more votes, a few more days of peace.
White South Africans, you should remember, have been in that part of Africa for the same amount of time whites have inhabited North America; yet ultimately South Africans voted for their own suicide. We are not so very different from you.
We lost our country though skilful propaganda, pressure from abroad (nor least from the USA), unrelenting charges of "oppression" and "racism" and the shrewd assessment by African tyrants that the white man has many Achilles heels, the most significant of which are his compassion, his belief in the "equality of man" and his "love thy neighbor" philosophy - none of which are part of the Third World's history.
The mainline churches played a big role in the demise of Western influence throughout Africa, too; especially in South Africa. Today's tyrants were yesterday's mission school protégés. Many dictators in Africa were men of the cloth. They knew their clerical collars would deflect criticism and obfuscate their real aims, which had nothing whatever to do with "brotherhood of man."
Other tyrants, like the infamous Idi Amin, were trained and schooled by the whites themselves at Oxford, Cambridge and Harvard. After receiving the best from the West, they unleashed a resentful bloodlust against their benefactors.
From what I have seen and read this far, I fear Americans will capitulate just as we did. Americans are, generally, a soft lot. They don't want to quarrel or obstruct the claims of those who believe they were wronged. They like peace and quiet and they want to compromise and be nice.
A television program that aired in South Africa showed a town meeting somewhere in Southern California where people met to complain about falling standards in the schools. Whites who politely spoke at the meeting clearly resented the influx of Mexican immigrants into their community. When a handful of Chicanos at the back of the hall shouted and waved their hands at them, the whites simply shrunk back into their seats rather than tell the noisemakers to shut up. They didn't want to quarrel.
In America, the courts are still the final arbiters of society's laws. But what will happen when your future majority refuses to abide by court rulings - as in Zimbabwe. What will happen when the new majority says the judges are racists, and that they refuse to acknowledge "white man's justice"? What will happen when the courts are filled with their people, or their sympathizers? In California, Proposition 187 has already been overturned.
What will you do when the future non-white majority decides to change the names of streets and cities? What will you do when they no longer want to use money that carries the portraits of old, dead white "racists" and slave owners? Will you cave in, like you did on flying the Confederate flag? What about the national anthem? Your official language?
Don't laugh. When the "majority" took over in South Africa, the first targets were our national symbols.
In another generation, America may well face what Africa is now experiencing - invasions of private land by the "have-nots;" the decline in health care quality; roads and buildings in disrepair: the banishment of your history from the education of the young; the revolutionization of your justice system.
What would you think of the ritual slaughter of animals in your neighbor's backyard? How do you clean the blood and entrails that litter your suburban streets? How do you feel about the practice of witchcraft, in which the parts of young girls and boys are needed for "medicinal" purposes? How do you react to the burning of witches? Don't laugh. All that is quite common in South Africa today.
Don't imagine that government officials caught with their fingers in the till will be punished. Excuses - like the need to overcome generations of white racism - will be found to exonerate the guilty.
In fact, known criminals will be voted into office because of a racial solidarity among the majority that doesn't exist among the whites. When Ian Smith of the old Rhodesia tried to stand up to the world, white South African politicians were among the westerners pressuring him to surrender.
When Robert Mugabe of Zimbabwe murders his political opponents, ignores unfavorable court decisions, terrorizes the population, siphons off millions from the state treasury for himself and his friends, South Africa's new President Thabo Mbeki holds his hands and declares his support. That just happened a few weeks ago.
Your tax dollars will go to those who don't earn and don't pay. In South Africa organizations that used to have access to state funds such as old age homes, the arts, and veterans' services, are simply abandoned.
What will happen is that Western structures in America will be either destroyed from without, or transformed from within used to suit the goals of the new rulers. And they will reign either through terror as in Zimbabwe today or exert other corrupt pressures to obtain or buy votes. Once power is in the hands of aliens, don't expect loyalty or devotion to principle from those whose jobs are at stake. One of the most surprising and tragic components of the disaster in South Africa is how many previously anti-ANC whites simply moved to the other side.
Once you lose social, cultural and political dominance, there is no getting it back again.
Unfortunately, your habits and values work against you. You cannot fight terror and street mobs with letters to your Congressmen. You cannot fight accusations of racism with prayer meetings. You cannot appeal to the goodness of your fellow man when the fellow man despises you for your weaknesses and hacks off the arms and legs of his political opponents.
To survive, Americans must never lose the power they now enjoy to people from alien cultures. Above all, don't put yourselves to the test of fighting only when your backs are against the wall. You will probably fail.
Millions around the world wait your good life. But make no mistake: They care not for the high-minded ideals of Jeffferson and Washington and your Constitution. What they want are your possessions, your power, your status.
And they already know that their allies among you, the "human rights activists" the skillful lawyers and the left wind politicians will fight for then and not for you. They will exploit your compassion and your Christian charity, and your good will.
They have studied you, Mr. and Mrs. America, and they know your weaknesses well.
They know what to do.
Do you??????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????
17. Comment by Lena B. (Lena)— September 24,2006 @ 8:26AM
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I'm an Inde also, Joann... I have voted for Dems here locally - the ones I had seen accomplish something in private or public life before they ran for office. I didn't vote for the Repubs in this last City Council election, but I sure wasn't buying the empty promises about undoing taxes from the Ds.
If people are so taken in by glossy horseback riding commercials and the Star's law-breaking, defeatist agenda; want the desert to continue to be buried under tons of garbage; and conditions everywhere (well, except in their gated communities) to become more crowded, then I guess Giffords is the choice.
18. Comment by Hank Y. (#4135)— September 24,2006 @ 8:27AM
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#13 I think the repubs have been in basic control since 1994. They have been out of control since 2000!
Why do I know that, because I am a republican and the worst thing we let happen was to have single party control. NOTHING has been done, oh sure a lot of rhetoric about what needs to be done from both sides, but in actuallyity very little from the controlling party. Graft and gipper both are out of pheonix, that by itself should be enough to tell ya something. We have a very ineffective state house that is run by the good ol boys. Just look at mecham and the hotel cook. they didnt play ball and they were out on their ears.
Of the 2 if I could vote I think that it would be for the gipper not more graft. both have made promises in therir ads they cannot keep. The way to change is to get rid of all of the bums locally to nationally, but like all good complainers do they normally follow the party line and then do nothing but complain so the cycle continues ad nauseum.
19. Comment by Bill B. (#5217)— September 24,2006 @ 8:28AM
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It is too bad that Tucson sends a couple of dipwads like Raul Grijalva and Ed Pastor to Congress (our version of illegals), now it appears in perhaps biased polling that Tucson wants to embarass itself further by sending an airhead like Giffords to Washington. If nothing else, Graf wants to close the border, and amnesty such as Giffords proposes is dangerous for Arizona.
20. Comment by Lena B. (Lena)— September 24,2006 @ 8:35AM
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#15 - there is either status quo or there is someone who has accomplished something. I refuse to vote for anyone, D or R, who does not have a solid record of enforcing our border laws.
Graf is perfectly "viable" and considering how badly Kolbe and company are trying to keep him out of office, shows he WOULD change things in D.C.
23. Comment by Robin P. (Rob)— September 24,2006 @ 9:13AM
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What fantasy world are you guys living in? Ronald Reagan is the politician who designed our border policy that you love to bash. Unions (remember them) fought to keep jobs in America and foreign workers out. Ronnie gutted the National Labor Relations Board, fired the air traffic controllers, opened the borders and declared amnesty.
The Republicans have been in control of both houses of congress, the presidency, and the supreme court for 6 years now. If the Republicans wanted to do something about the border they would have done so already. Right now, they are too busy destroying the middle class.
24. Comment by Joann H. (jh)— September 24,2006 @ 9:13AM
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Graf is the best person for the job because he is not status quo, open borders, or amnesty proponents like his Republican predecessor have been i.e. Kolbe. Kolbe's performance is one of the reasons we are in this mess of invasion.
Graf represents what the citizen's and the House of Representatives are mandating, secure borders, no amnesty, and a sensible immigration program.
It has been obvious that the Bush administration's globalize vision of the the SPP and the North American Union has been the corner post of his position for open borders, amnesty, and cheap labor, and the visceral comments that the MinuteMen are vigilantes. All the while planning to circumvent the Congress of any acknowledge or oversight of the North American Union via SPP.
I know that Randy Graf and Tom Tancredo are opposed to that kind of secret agenda and they have both been chastised and criticized by the RINOs. It is time for the Republican party to consolidate to it's original platform.
28. Comment by Robin P. (Rob)— September 24,2006 @ 10:07AM
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It COULD be the #1 issue in the 8th district, but regardless of who wins, the border will still be there with its advantages and problems. Neither Graf nor Giffords will change this place to whatever it is that some of these people want. (I worry about people who read the Rhodesian exiled govt. site. By definition, this is a white supremacy site.)
29. Comment by Robert M. (#4833)— September 24,2006 @ 10:31AM
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Graf is behind. Even his people acknowledge that. But the 12 percent lead this poll shows is not insurmountable. And have you been watching the news and the campaign for this race. Do you have any doubt the border is the top issue in THIS race.
Diogenes--that would be Latin for conspiracy theorist? Every Arizona pollster who does political work is predominately involved with one side or the other. That's just the way it is. At least the Star told you where their pollster leaned, which isn't what most do. The Star's poll says the race is significantly closer than the one the Democrats just released. What does that tell you?
Ross J. Quote the whole passage. It goes on to note that's four times as many as the next issue. By your logic, 90 percent didn't say the war in Iraq.
Lene B. Good point. Giffords was ineffective as a minority party in the Legislature. Why thing she'll be effective as a minority party in Congress.
Joann H. So no one called you for the poll, therefore something is amiss. A little self-important? Like clogging up a blog with a 36 paragraphs of outside opinion when a description and link would have been sufficient for those who want to read it.
32. Comment by J K. (ikamoj)— September 24,2006 @ 10:58AM
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OK, time to get a Republican poll of CD8 together so that it will be unbiased ... right. No, wait -- they already did that; that's why the RNCC pulled out. Reasonable people tried very hard to get a mainstream GOP candidate but HUFFMAN and HELLON just had to duke out their personal crap in public leaving us with a candidate that cannot win. Yes, that's right, GRAF cannot win CD8. Practical and moderate heads will prevail. He can mouth BORDER, BORDER, BORDER all he wants. It won't work.
The GRAF supporters can get out all the New Years noise makers they want but it won't help. They can cry RINO, LIBERAL, and whine hateful, disparaging things about other local congressmen. They can slam BUSH's (really KOLBE's) immigration reform plans that include the pragmatic but so dreaded GUEST WORKER program. It won't help. They can call GIFFORDS an airhead, slick, or shiny. It won't help.
The problem is that the solid party of Goldwater republicans has become overrun by the right wing -- the party is fragmented. They've been overrun by the "I want my ten commandment prayers in school, Jesus is knocking on the door, the GAYS will burn in hell" wing of the republican party. It won't work.
GRAF may be a nice guy, but we're in the 21st century --- he doesn't have much for sale that people want anymore. I want a multi-cultural diverse community. I don't want to live in an all-white, praise Jesus evolution is a lie neurotic fantasy. MY family values are important.
And by the way, KUDOS to JIM KOLBE for having the courage to withhold his support for GRAF. This had to be hard for him to do because he is an extremely loyal republican, especially given the short shrift that the BUSH administration has continually given him.
My precious vote will go to GIFFORDS. No question, no hesitation.
35. Comment by Huffelschnautzer G. (Huffelschnautzer)— September 24,2006 @ 12:36PM
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it is the liberals who have been divisive and who have harmed this country with their give away programs.
gabby will continue to give away. she has no backbone and is just a puppet.
people who do not want change because the status quo is more convenient for them (as hiring illegals)will of course vote for gabby. she will make sure the status quo is maintained. and that they can go on hiring their illegal help.
most liberals live in gated communities, send their children to private schools, drive their overpriced volvos, and then pretend that they are for the poor. they have no problem giving away taxpayers' money.
39. Comment by Ross J. (#5973)— September 24,2006 @ 1:55PM
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Paul #37's comment is inane, because the poll was limited to "likely voters," but the Star could have told readers what they mean by that term. Is it people who voted in the last general election, or the last midterm election?
Will the border be enough of an issue that "unlikely voters" will turn out for one candidate or the other?
And I'm still waiting for someone to answer the question: Has Kyl endorsed Graf? Has Graf endorsed Kyl?
40. Comment by Tyler M. (#5061)— September 24,2006 @ 1:57PM
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Graf supporters: Be not discouraged or disheartened. Gabby Giffords released a poll on September 20 showing her with a 19 point advantage. Today, four days after the Giffords poll, Randy Graf is only down by 12 points. That is a 7 point swing in 4 days. So, let me ask you and any Giffords supporters: Who has all of the momentum? If this insane rate of closing the gap: 7 more points every 4 days continues, Graf will be ahead in 8 days. I don’t expect that. But this race is very, very winnable for Graf. Another thing that is great news for Graf is that a lot of Graf’s momentum comes from people moving away from Gabby. Her poll 4 days ago showed her receiving 54% of the vote. Now she’s at 48% below the magic 50% number. This shows that as people really begin to know Gabby, they realize that she’s not all that great of a candidate and does not represent their values. She dropped 6 points in 4 days. That’s a huge loss of support.
One thing that disappoints me with the <i>Star</i> poll and could mean even better news for Graf is that this poll, just like the Giffords poll before it, still fails to show any specifics on the polling sample. If their poll sample does not match the makeup of the District, then the poll itself will not show what the real outcome will be. Without the internals, a poll is utterly useless. For all we know, out of the 600 people polled, Zimmerman - a Democrat - could have only interviewed 3 Republicans. Thus when they show that 2 out of 3 Republicans are sticking with Graf, they might actually mean it literally. We need to know the information on the polling sample in order to believe any of the numbers. There are 39% Republicans in the District and 34% Democrats. The rest are Independents and a handfull of Libertarians. If the Zimmerman poll does not follow these numbers, then the poll is meaningless.
41. Comment by Paul S. (paulc)— September 24,2006 @ 1:59PM
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#35:"she will make sure the status quo is maintained. and that they can go on hiring their illegal help."
I don't want any illegal help--but I can't seem to avoid it.
I am sick and tired of non English speaking work crews showing up at my house and screwing up whatever project I've paid their company (landscaping, pool, paint, interior) to do and giving me sh*t eating grins while they do it.
My damn house should have a big old "MADE IN MEXICO OR SOME OTHER COUNTRY SOUTH OF THE US" sticker on the front of it. Because that's what it is and it's built like crap.
Aren't there any companies willing to hire Americans to do their contracting work?
42. Comment by Tyler M. (#5061)— September 24,2006 @ 2:05PM
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Ross J.-
Yes, Jon Kyl has endorsed Graf. And long ago, Graf endorsed and has always supported Jon Kyl.
---
And one more thing, I kind of failed to get to my whole point about momentum in politics. Momentum means everything! People like to vote for winners. Since Giffords support is dwindling, this is really good news for Randy Graf. Momentum in politics has a huge snowball effect.
43. Comment by Jade S. (#2276)— September 24,2006 @ 2:28PM
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If the Red Star and Citizen Socialist rags weren't free reading on line, I wouldn't be reading them. Kinda like adult comic books. Gabby will never beat Randy. Iwouldn't believe a poll, nor much of anything else I read in the daily rags, if the paper came down from heaven endorsed by a note from Jesus.( That's Jee-sus, not Hay-sus). I only buy the Sunday paper because the T.V. guide is cheaper than the ones on the newstand. We used to be a "can-do" nation. We put a man on the moon even when people like the Red Star and Socialist Citizen, said it couldn't be done. Same with flying, Wright Bros. will never fly. Well we still don't have wings, but DUH! If we have the political will, we'll build the fence. It'll be more successful, and cheaper, than the big dig in Boston endorsed by good ole boy, Teddy Kennedy. NUFF SAID!
45. Comment by Robert M. (#4833)— September 24,2006 @ 3:31PM
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Tyler M. If it helps, go back and read the Star poll (also done by Zimmerman) before the primary election. You will see it was almost exactly on the mark. (Unlike some others that were being floated around at the time.) I suspect you'll find it's a cross-section of people who have a consistant voting record--ie, "likely voters."
Also, I don't believe there has been a 7 point swing since the Giffords poll. I believe the Giffords poll was done by her campaign and publically released for a reason. To create the impression of momentum and build a bandwagon effect. I believe the gap is a lot closer to 12 than 19.
For Graf, that has to be good news. The poll shows Giffords already has the solid support of Democrats. Republicans were far more fractured by their primary. Graf has six weeks to reel those disident Republicans back in. If he does, he can win because there are more R's than D's.
46. Comment by Hank Y. (#4135)— September 24,2006 @ 3:50PM
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yes but an endorsement by kyl aint gonna help. I know a lot of folks in cochise county and they are not favorable to graft or kyl.
They are pretty much PO'd by the whole bunch of pols. long on rhetoric and short on action. Just like last time they said kolby was done, but he won then.
I dont think kyl will win this go round, and if mcain runs in 08 I think
he will pull a gore here in az!
47. Comment by Tyler M. (#5061)— September 24,2006 @ 4:24PM
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Robert M.-
That’s exactly my point. In the Zimmerman survey before the Primary Election, they explained their polling sample:
“In each race, 400 registered voters who cast ballots in the 2004 primaries were polled by phone. Roughly 10 percent in each group were political independents. The majority — 81 percent — of those polled were from Pima County, 16 percent were from Cochise County and the rest were registered to vote in Pinal and Santa Cruz counties. The combined 800 voters polled for the head-to-head matchups translated to a margin of error of 3.5 percent.”
They skipped releasing this crucial information in their latest polling information. If we don’t know the specifics of the sample, we cannot be sure about the poll itself. In a poll of 600 Democrats, Giffords is likely to win handily. That’s what happened in the Primary. The same goes for Graf with Republicans. Now, in order to conduct a valid poll of the General Electorate, we need that poll to be representative of the District itself. The polling firm must be the one that provides that evidence. One reason that I can see the latest polling as evidence of Graf momentum is that neither the Giffords nor the Zimmerman poll today explains their polling sample. Both are done by Democratic polling firms as well. So, it is very possible that they were both done by the same biased standard. Regardless, the fact that the polling sample is not discussed in the Zimmerman poll should make Graf feel a lot more confident with his position.
48. Comment by Arthur W. (Diogenes)— September 24,2006 @ 4:28PM
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Robert M,
Diogenes--that would be Latin for conspiracy theorist? (You are misinformed).Every Arizona pollster who does political work is predominately involved with one side or the other. (Are their no honest pollsters in Arizona?)That's just the way it is. (Ok you settle for this).At least the Star told you where their pollster leaned, which isn't what most do. (please site example) The Star's poll says the race is significantly closer than the one the Democrats just released. (Please site poll reference).What does that tell you? (You have no credibility)
Unfortunate you process the statement as a conspiracy theory. Inteligent people would just recognize the fact that the pole may have a significantly larger margin for error!
A responsible report would print poll results form both sides.
49. Comment by Ross J. (#5973)— September 24,2006 @ 4:33PM
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Tyler #40 Gabby Giffords released a poll on September 20 showing her with a 19 point advantage. Today, four days after the Giffords poll, Randy Graf is only down by 12 points.
If you throw out the undecideds and also-rans and just look at the 504 voters who chose Graf or Giffords, she's ahead by 16 points in the Star poll (58% to 42%).
50. Comment by Tyler M. (#5061)— September 24,2006 @ 5:06PM
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Ross J.-
Either way, Graf”s still closing the gap. He's got the momentum. Plus, you can't do what you just did anyway. The technique of throwing out the undecideds has always been frowned upon by reputable polling firms. Undecideds are too hard to gauge. Plus, they often go toward the candidate with the momentum. In this case, that would be Randy Graf. Many also tend to go against the establishment. This one will be tougher to gauge. It is widely known how well Graf has been able to show his anti-establishment bon-a-fides. The NRCC went against him in an open Primary, and Graf put a picture with himself and Bush's upside down to protest Bush’s immigration policy. Can Gabby do the same thing? She has always definitely been the Democratic establishment candidate. But Democrats are not in power, so this fact could help her and maybe hurt Graf. Although, I just explained why I don't believe that she will be the only one seen as an outsider. Even with these factors, undecided are very difficult to predict.
51. Comment by Joann H. (jh)— September 24,2006 @ 5:31PM
Ratings:-0+0
It will come down to the independent vote, and most independents want secure borders and immigration enforcement.
Once that mission begins to strengthens, there will be less crowding in schools, less emergency room abuse, and more work for the citizens or legal immigrants.
52. Comment by William A. (arizato)— September 24,2006 @ 5:57PM
Ratings:-0+0
It blows my mind that a newspaper and television station would hire a politically biased research company to conduct a poll on a major local race. Zimmerman is joined at the hip with local Democrats -- as a consultant, pollster and even as a candidate. Spout all you want about the integrity of the poll, but it's ruined from the start.
It's the new management and out of town leaders at both the STar and KVOA. Ten years ago neither would have allowed Zimmerman to conduct an "unbiased" poll for them. The leaders knew where Zimmerman stood and how easily they could impact and effect the outcome.
Both the Star and KVOA should be apologizing to its readers and viewers for being so blantantly stupid to allow this to happen and not pull the plug before they both touted the results (lead story and front page).
The people of Tucson deserve better. On a heavily contested race like this, go to a completely unvarnished polling and research company. Maybe not even local. I bet Zimmerman used it same callers it's used for other Democrats here in Tucson. They know who is paying them. They know what needs to be done to make the Dems look good.
This is a journalistic embarrassment that both organizations should apologize for immediately.
53. Comment by lance s. (#5855)— September 24,2006 @ 6:11PM
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That consultant or whatever said Graf needs to shore up the Republican vote.
I think that is totally off base.
I believe there are two groups that a pro-borders candidate will never win the votes of, the left wing of the Democratic voters and the open borders wing of the Republican voters.
If there are 16% or so of the Republicans that don't support Graf, those have got to be the open borders folks it seems to me. For Graf to win their votes is about as likely as it is for Graf to win the votes of Ted Kennedy fans.
What Graf SHOULD do is go after the votes of pro-borders independents and Democrats.
54. Comment by lance s. (#5855)— September 24,2006 @ 6:21PM
Ratings:-0+0
This poll does seem to make sense though.
Polls run by politicians tend to be very slanted in their favor. Polls run by partisan journalists tend to be slanted, but not as badly as those run by politicians.
So, if Giffords' poll says Graf is behind by 19 points, and this new poll shows he's behind by 12-13, probably the real truth is that he is behind by 8-9.
Which means he probably will lose, but he has a longshot chance.
One thing they ought to do. They should poll of those that feel immigration is the #1 issue, how many of those support Graf and how many support Giffords.
Because, based on all the other polls that have been done around the country in recent months, there is no evidence that there is any sizeable segment of the voting public that desperately wants illegal aliens to have amnesty and intends to cast their vote for a candidate that supports that.
I would guess that most of those who consider immigration the #1 issue are Graf supporters.
If so, that would indicate that Graf would be losing in a huge landslide to Giffords if it weren't for the immigration issue.
That issue looks like it won't put him over the top, but it does look like what keeping him at least in the game.
Since there are 435 members of the House, whether Graf wins or loses will largely be of just symbolic value with regard to the politics of immigration.
From the standpoint of a pro-borders supporter like myself, I find it fortunate that our side appears to have a great deal of political momentum, with the fence bill and all, and I don't think a Graf defeat would cut into that momentum very much.
One that is actually much bigger in importance is the Kean/Menendez race for the Senate in New Jersey.
That is one where our side has a much better chance, since Kean has been leading (albeit by a razor thin margin).
Menendez seems to suffer from a widespread image that he is a "lightweight", to the point where there was acutally discussion of whether the Democratic Party might give him the heave-ho and put someone else in there with more stature.
58. Comment by Ross J. (#5973)— September 24,2006 @ 8:24PM
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Graf certainly has the momentum. When his first stop after the primary was Washington, to beg for money, they kicked him out so hard he's still gaining altitude.
59. Comment by Noah B. (Yankeefan21)— September 24,2006 @ 8:45PM
Ratings:-0+0
You know for a "Socialist Rag" The Star sure does seem to always attract a group of neo-con rednecks everytime it prints anything that isn't to the right of Goering.
You know I imagine most of you guys can't be over 40. How come you haven't enlisted yet to go fight your lord's war yet? The age I believe is 39 now for reserves 35 for active duty in the army. I hear they're even taking recruits with intelligence levels far below average so you folks have quite the sporting chance!
60. Comment by Tyler M. (#5061)— September 24,2006 @ 9:46PM
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Ross J-
"They kicked him out so hard" that he's going back to Washington DC this week for a political fundraiser hosted by Speaker of the House J. Dennis Hastert. It's best to know what your talking about before you say something. Or as the old saying goes "When people think you're ignorant; don't open your mouth if all it will do is remove any doubt."
61. Comment by Carmi T. (wearetribal)— September 24,2006 @ 11:03PM
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Some hilarious stuff her.
Having just seen the Weiss folks desperately try to spin reality to convince folks Weiss was ahead, despite every indication to the contrary, this has a familiar smell.
The poll Giffords released, and this poll, were actually taken in the same period, basically. This one from the 16-19th, the other from the 13-18th. Hard to see how the gap could close like that, by 7%, in one day. Graf is not likely to have that much momentum. So perhaps the polls just got different numbers, they are with the margin of error of each other.
I also have to point out that polls from just before the primary on the 12th showed Graf only down by 10% to both Giffords and Weiss. So he has either lost 3% or 9% over the ten days or so between the polls. Not exactly an exciting bit of news for Graf. Not really what one would call momentum.
And the Giffords poll shows that Graf has higher negatives than positives, 39% to 32%. While the negatives for Giffords are only at 18%. There just is no way a candidate wins with negatives more than 20% higher than their opponent.
These numbers, Graf only getting 67% of Republicans, losing by 30% with independants...there is just no way he wins with those numbers.
The national Republicans and Democrats pulled their money out of this race because it is not going to be close. Giffords has this one locked up.
It is also comical to see the switch here. For months Giffords faced a barrage of attacks calling her a closet Republican, a conservative who "voted with Huffman an astonishing, incredible, 90% of the time." To quote Weiss. Now suddenly we get to the general election and she is a closet liberal who will vote with Kennedy 100% of the time.
Name calling smears failed to work for Weiss, and I bet they will fail this time to. The attacks from both extremes also seem to be pretty good evidence that Giffords is a moderate, just like she claims.
62. Comment by Joe M. (Coolbreeze)— September 25,2006 @ 12:40AM
Ratings:-0+0
Gee, no one polled me. A solid lead? Yeah, maybe among those happy to spill their granola filled guts to the biased, liberal media. I work for a living and pay taxes. I want the kids that I am raising to live in a safe environment. The silent majority is fed up with paying for someone else's political correctness. There were those who had the guts to do something definitive and draft proposition 200. Graf will get my vote.
63. Comment by Carmi T. (wearetribal)— September 25,2006 @ 1:34AM
Ratings:-0+0
Oh, yep, the liberal biased media. The same media that had over 400 pro-war guests on TV before we invaded Iraq, and precisely 4 anti-war. While the population was split 50/50.
See folks, this is how you identify an extremist whacko. The media is, as the above demonstrates, in fact highly biased towards the conservative side. Yet Joe claims that they are biased to the other side. In fact, every study says the opposite.
Another example is Global Warming, where over half the articles in the popular press claim there is a debate in the scientific community over whether it is happening or not. Meanwhile, not one single peer reviewed paper disputing the reality of Global Warming has been published in a scientific journal in the last decade.
Graf and his bunch make the Taliban look like liberal moderates.
64. Comment by Julie S. (Julie)— October 2,2006 @ 7:04PM
Ratings:-0+0
You know what is wrong with this country? We have become a group of knee jerk, "if you don't agree with my opinion you are insane", intolerant, judgemental freaks. The rest of the world is laughing at us just for this reason and this comment log is a prime example of why. Everyone is either a granola leftist or a right wing-nut. If everyone could get over themselves for even a minute and let their brain click in, they would see that the answers almost always lay somewhere in the middle. But no one seems to have the guts, courage or integrity to step up and admit that they do not align like a psycho fanatic with either extreme. Everyone would rather be an Ann Colture or a Michael Moore- always ready to spew venom, but with no clue or suggestion as to how to answer the problems we face..The War in Iraq, Illegal Immigration, Economy, Education and the list goes on. Vomiting vile comments is much easier and requires much less brain power than actually coming up with something that works. Neither candidate in this race is a good one, we are screwed either way. Giffords ideas regarding Immigration are ****ed at best and Graff is just a loonie, plain and simple. I do not know who I will vote for this time, but at least I care, and at least I am willing to listen and try to find an actual solution to our problems. The rest of you can keep playing "I am rubber..." until we become a third world country. Hope you are proud of yourselves.
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Giffords leads Graf solidly in Dist. 8 poll
Democrat Gabrielle Giffords holds a solid lead over Republican Randy Graf in the Congressional District 8 race, according to a poll of likely voters sponsored by the Arizona Daily Star and KVOA Channel 4.Carol Zimmerman, a long-time local Democratic consultant who ran the Star-sponsored poll
Hmmmm, No Bias here...
Guess the Star could not find an independent source to conduct the poll!
Are we surprised?
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Will the Star run a detailed position
parallel on both Giffords vs Graf?
Graf =
Total Border Control No on Amnesty
Giffords =
Amnesty for all ILLEGALS.
(*She must need her yard work done cheap).
She will support Raising our taxes to pay for FREE education, Life Styles and Medical for the ILLEGALS>
She is Senor Raul in a Short Skirt.
Once she starts talking, every statement she makes will put another nail into her, ...
Please, Oh! Please Gabby, ... Keep Talking!!!
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Graf is done. Stick a fork in him.
Had enough blundering bloodshed?
Vote Democratic in '06.
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If voters in the 8th Congressional district want border security and no amnesty for illegal aliens, why Gabrielle Giffords. She promotes the comprehensive solution to our crises at the border. She acknowledges some path to citizenship must be provided for millions of illegals living in the shadows, but she says it is not amnesty. She wants a guest worker program, Bush style that allows 10-12 million illegal aliens to stay here if they pay back taxes --She says it is not amnesty. And for some reason Raul Grijalva supports her--the leader for amnesty and open borders.
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Ray, good Dem talking points.
Ms.Giffords, like Senor Raul Grijalva, wants AMNESTY and that will result in OPEN BORDERS.
Elect her and we will get what we deserve.
AMNESTY for ALL ILLEGALS now here and for ALL of the millions more that will SWARM in Border, the minuet she is sworn in.
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The poll reveals a sharp gender gap.
Shocking news, I'm sure, for certain Angry Anglo Males.
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Or, you could say . . .
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Diogenes (great name, seeker of truth) makes a valid point and Ross J. plays with numbers except that he drew attention to the fact that CD8 voters appear quite docile and uninterested in issues in general.
Gene Buddha makes the best point. Once Repub. ad money left and Dem. ad money followed it was an admission that Graf was indeed done. Thank goodness. Unless voter apathy sets in, it's over.
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the liberals are out bright and early thumbing down anybody who has a different opinion.
gabby is nothing but a liberal pretending to be a moderate. with her it will continue being an ongoing battle,for us citizens,to close the border.
amnesty? i will go break the law, and snatch a root beer from the fridge at circle k. then i will demand amnesty. if there are laws,they are there for a reason.
gabby has no original ideas.she will do as the liberals tell her. what a good girl, and obedient servant!
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You go, Giffords!
Vote Democrat in '06, esp. if you find the only (pathetic) thing you can do to defend the other party is to invoke the 'l' word in every other sentence.
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How any thinking person could imagine that Giffords will accomplish what she claims in her commercials -when she had several years in the state legislature and did not, is beyond me. I guess the same people who voted for the City Council members who said they'd undo the garbage tax. Maybe that's the point though - status quo.
She advertises solar panels - where are mine? She says on her ads she supports oil independence then drives around in a big RV? Border security? Yes, for the illegal aliens.
She won't come out and debate Graf either so how does she plan to debate anyone in Congress and allegedly fight for the district?
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Good poll... front page Gabby wins if you say so ,you paid for it. Why does the Star want an open border? Why does the Star charge 20.00 for a yard sale ad and 200.00 for help wanted ad??. They want Illegals to have jobs? This must be a Hearst owned paper?
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we are in this bad a shape as a country due to the liberals and their give away programs.
gabby will continue to give away our country at the border. she is a good salesperson for the liberals.
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Good points Lena. The star makes so many claims based on hollow data, no one called me about a vote survey, and I'm independent. Hmmm me thinks there is a fly in the ointment.
And the star thinks they can send four puppy reporters out to the desert and write a huge front page epiphany observation that the borders cannot be sealed!!!!!!!!!! So I guess that means from the star point of view we should just all shut up and take the brainwashing. Think NOT.
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Hey #11, if you all have a problem with Giffords, why didn't you put up a viable candidate?
You all have only yourselves to blame!
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This is long but worth while:
http://rhodesian.server101.com/coming_darkness1.htm
The Coming Darkness
A Warning for Americans: A message from South Africa
20th March 2004
People used to say that South Africa was 20 years behind the rest of the Western world. Television, for example, came late to South Africa (but so did pornography and the gay rights movement).
Today, however, South Africa may be the grim model of the future Western world, for events in America reveal trends chillingly similar to those that destroyed our country.
America's structures are Western. Your Congress, your lobbying groups, your free speech, and the way ordinary Americans either get involved or ignore politics are peculiarly Western, not the way most of the world operates. But the fact that only about a third of Americans deem it important to vote is horrifying in light of how close you are to losing your western character.
Writing letters to the press, manning stands at country fairs, hosting fund-raising dinners, attending rallies, setting up conferences, writing to your Congressman - that is what you know, and that is what you are comfortable with. Those are the political methods you've created for yourselves to keep your country on track and to ensure political accountability.
But woe to you if - or more likely, when - the rules change. White Americans may soon find themselves unable or unwilling to stand up to challenge the new political methods that will be the inevitable result of the ethnic metamorphosis now taking place in America. Unable to cope with the new rules of the game - violence, mob riots, intimidation through accusation of racism, demands for proportionality cased on racial numbers, and all the other social and political weapons used by the have-nots to bludgeon treasure and power from the haves - Americans, like others before them, will no doubt cave in. They will compromise away their independence and ultimately their way of life.
That is exactly what happened to South Africa. I know because I was there and saw it happen.
Faced with revolution in the streets, strikes, civil unrest and the sheer terror and murder practiced by Nelson Mandela's African National Congress (ANC), the white government simply capitulated in order to achieve "peace."
Westerners need peace. They need order and stability. They are builders and planners. But what we got was the peace of the grave for our society.
The third world is different - different peoples with different pasts and different cultures. Yet Westerners continue to mistake the psychology of the Third World and its peoples. Sierra Leone and Zimbabwe are perfect examples of those mistakes. Sierra Leone is in perpetual civil war, and Zimbabwe - once thriving stable Rhodesia - is looting the very people (the white men) who feed the country. Yet Westerners do not admit the same kind of savagery could come to America when enough immigrants of the right type assert themselves. The fact is, Americans are sitting ducks for Third World exploitation of the Western conscience of compassion.
Those in the West who forced South Africa to surrender to the ANC and its leaders did not consider Africa to be the dangerous, corrupt, and savage place it is now in Zimbabwe and South Africa. Those Western politicians now have a similar problem looming on their own doorsteps: the demand for power and treasure from the non-western peoples inside the realm.
It is already too late for South Africa, but not for America if enough people strengthen their spine and take on the race terrorists, the armies of the "politically correct" and, most dangerous of all, the craven politicians who believe "compassionate conservatism" will buy them more votes, a few more days of peace.
White South Africans, you should remember, have been in that part of Africa for the same amount of time whites have inhabited North America; yet ultimately South Africans voted for their own suicide. We are not so very different from you.
We lost our country though skilful propaganda, pressure from abroad (nor least from the USA), unrelenting charges of "oppression" and "racism" and the shrewd assessment by African tyrants that the white man has many Achilles heels, the most significant of which are his compassion, his belief in the "equality of man" and his "love thy neighbor" philosophy - none of which are part of the Third World's history.
The mainline churches played a big role in the demise of Western influence throughout Africa, too; especially in South Africa. Today's tyrants were yesterday's mission school protégés. Many dictators in Africa were men of the cloth. They knew their clerical collars would deflect criticism and obfuscate their real aims, which had nothing whatever to do with "brotherhood of man."
Other tyrants, like the infamous Idi Amin, were trained and schooled by the whites themselves at Oxford, Cambridge and Harvard. After receiving the best from the West, they unleashed a resentful bloodlust against their benefactors.
From what I have seen and read this far, I fear Americans will capitulate just as we did. Americans are, generally, a soft lot. They don't want to quarrel or obstruct the claims of those who believe they were wronged. They like peace and quiet and they want to compromise and be nice.
A television program that aired in South Africa showed a town meeting somewhere in Southern California where people met to complain about falling standards in the schools. Whites who politely spoke at the meeting clearly resented the influx of Mexican immigrants into their community. When a handful of Chicanos at the back of the hall shouted and waved their hands at them, the whites simply shrunk back into their seats rather than tell the noisemakers to shut up. They didn't want to quarrel.
In America, the courts are still the final arbiters of society's laws. But what will happen when your future majority refuses to abide by court rulings - as in Zimbabwe. What will happen when the new majority says the judges are racists, and that they refuse to acknowledge "white man's justice"? What will happen when the courts are filled with their people, or their sympathizers? In California, Proposition 187 has already been overturned.
What will you do when the future non-white majority decides to change the names of streets and cities? What will you do when they no longer want to use money that carries the portraits of old, dead white "racists" and slave owners? Will you cave in, like you did on flying the Confederate flag? What about the national anthem? Your official language?
Don't laugh. When the "majority" took over in South Africa, the first targets were our national symbols.
In another generation, America may well face what Africa is now experiencing - invasions of private land by the "have-nots;" the decline in health care quality; roads and buildings in disrepair: the banishment of your history from the education of the young; the revolutionization of your justice system.
What would you think of the ritual slaughter of animals in your neighbor's backyard? How do you clean the blood and entrails that litter your suburban streets? How do you feel about the practice of witchcraft, in which the parts of young girls and boys are needed for "medicinal" purposes? How do you react to the burning of witches? Don't laugh. All that is quite common in South Africa today.
Don't imagine that government officials caught with their fingers in the till will be punished. Excuses - like the need to overcome generations of white racism - will be found to exonerate the guilty.
In fact, known criminals will be voted into office because of a racial solidarity among the majority that doesn't exist among the whites. When Ian Smith of the old Rhodesia tried to stand up to the world, white South African politicians were among the westerners pressuring him to surrender.
When Robert Mugabe of Zimbabwe murders his political opponents, ignores unfavorable court decisions, terrorizes the population, siphons off millions from the state treasury for himself and his friends, South Africa's new President Thabo Mbeki holds his hands and declares his support. That just happened a few weeks ago.
Your tax dollars will go to those who don't earn and don't pay. In South Africa organizations that used to have access to state funds such as old age homes, the arts, and veterans' services, are simply abandoned.
What will happen is that Western structures in America will be either destroyed from without, or transformed from within used to suit the goals of the new rulers. And they will reign either through terror as in Zimbabwe today or exert other corrupt pressures to obtain or buy votes. Once power is in the hands of aliens, don't expect loyalty or devotion to principle from those whose jobs are at stake. One of the most surprising and tragic components of the disaster in South Africa is how many previously anti-ANC whites simply moved to the other side.
Once you lose social, cultural and political dominance, there is no getting it back again.
Unfortunately, your habits and values work against you. You cannot fight terror and street mobs with letters to your Congressmen. You cannot fight accusations of racism with prayer meetings. You cannot appeal to the goodness of your fellow man when the fellow man despises you for your weaknesses and hacks off the arms and legs of his political opponents.
To survive, Americans must never lose the power they now enjoy to people from alien cultures. Above all, don't put yourselves to the test of fighting only when your backs are against the wall. You will probably fail.
Millions around the world wait your good life. But make no mistake: They care not for the high-minded ideals of Jeffferson and Washington and your Constitution. What they want are your possessions, your power, your status.
And they already know that their allies among you, the "human rights activists" the skillful lawyers and the left wind politicians will fight for then and not for you. They will exploit your compassion and your Christian charity, and your good will.
They have studied you, Mr. and Mrs. America, and they know your weaknesses well.
They know what to do.
Do you??????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????
By Gemma Meyer
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I'm an Inde also, Joann... I have voted for Dems here locally - the ones I had seen accomplish something in private or public life before they ran for office. I didn't vote for the Repubs in this last City Council election, but I sure wasn't buying the empty promises about undoing taxes from the Ds.
If people are so taken in by glossy horseback riding commercials and the Star's law-breaking, defeatist agenda; want the desert to continue to be buried under tons of garbage; and conditions everywhere (well, except in their gated communities) to become more crowded, then I guess Giffords is the choice.
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#13 I think the repubs have been in basic control since 1994. They have been out of control since 2000!
Why do I know that, because I am a republican and the worst thing we let happen was to have single party control. NOTHING has been done, oh sure a lot of rhetoric about what needs to be done from both sides, but in actuallyity very little from the controlling party. Graft and gipper both are out of pheonix, that by itself should be enough to tell ya something. We have a very ineffective state house that is run by the good ol boys. Just look at mecham and the hotel cook. they didnt play ball and they were out on their ears.
Of the 2 if I could vote I think that it would be for the gipper not more graft. both have made promises in therir ads they cannot keep. The way to change is to get rid of all of the bums locally to nationally, but like all good complainers do they normally follow the party line and then do nothing but complain so the cycle continues ad nauseum.
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It is too bad that Tucson sends a couple of dipwads like Raul Grijalva and Ed Pastor to Congress (our version of illegals), now it appears in perhaps biased polling that Tucson wants to embarass itself further by sending an airhead like Giffords to Washington. If nothing else, Graf wants to close the border, and amnesty such as Giffords proposes is dangerous for Arizona.
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#15 - there is either status quo or there is someone who has accomplished something. I refuse to vote for anyone, D or R, who does not have a solid record of enforcing our border laws.
Graf is perfectly "viable" and considering how badly Kolbe and company are trying to keep him out of office, shows he WOULD change things in D.C.
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Give away programs by the Democrats? Let's see: what give away programs have been enacted in the last 6+ years? Halliburton comes immediately to mind.
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Let's add in the Medicard drug program giveaway to the drug companies.
$400+ billion from W and the Repos in Congress to buy the votes of the elderly.
Who's going to pay for it?
Beats me. Someone's grandchildren I suppose.
The Repos cut taxes and raised spending.
Deficits and wars as far as the eye can see.
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What fantasy world are you guys living in? Ronald Reagan is the politician who designed our border policy that you love to bash. Unions (remember them) fought to keep jobs in America and foreign workers out. Ronnie gutted the National Labor Relations Board, fired the air traffic controllers, opened the borders and declared amnesty.
The Republicans have been in control of both houses of congress, the presidency, and the supreme court for 6 years now. If the Republicans wanted to do something about the border they would have done so already. Right now, they are too busy destroying the middle class.
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Graf is the best person for the job because he is not status quo, open borders, or amnesty proponents like his Republican predecessor have been i.e. Kolbe. Kolbe's performance is one of the reasons we are in this mess of invasion.
Graf represents what the citizen's and the House of Representatives are mandating, secure borders, no amnesty, and a sensible immigration program.
It has been obvious that the Bush administration's globalize vision of the the SPP and the North American Union has been the corner post of his position for open borders, amnesty, and cheap labor, and the visceral comments that the MinuteMen are vigilantes. All the while planning to circumvent the Congress of any acknowledge or oversight of the North American Union via SPP.
I know that Randy Graf and Tom Tancredo are opposed to that kind of secret agenda and they have both been chastised and criticized by the RINOs. It is time for the Republican party to consolidate to it's original platform.
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The race is important. Graf is the best choice. This story and the so-called poll is bull-exhaust. Zimmerman run an unbiased poll? That's a good one. Next thing the Star will try to sell is a 350-foot tall bridge over the Santa Cruz --- wait, they already tried that one. How about trying to convince folks that there is no border issue and that securing it is impossible, so why bother? Nope, already tried that one too. If you buy this sorry excuse for journalism you probably can't tell the difference between butter and Shinola©
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I don't want to rain on your parade, but the border is not the #1 issue. Its Iraq and the phony war on terror.
Dead and Wounded.
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I agree with you, Rob, that it is a phony war on terror, but didn't the border come up slightly higher even in the Star's slanted poll?
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It COULD be the #1 issue in the 8th district, but regardless of who wins, the border will still be there with its advantages and problems. Neither Graf nor Giffords will change this place to whatever it is that some of these people want. (I worry about people who read the Rhodesian exiled govt. site. By definition, this is a white supremacy site.)
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Graf is behind. Even his people acknowledge that. But the 12 percent lead this poll shows is not insurmountable. And have you been watching the news and the campaign for this race. Do you have any doubt the border is the top issue in THIS race.
Diogenes--that would be Latin for conspiracy theorist? Every Arizona pollster who does political work is predominately involved with one side or the other. That's just the way it is. At least the Star told you where their pollster leaned, which isn't what most do. The Star's poll says the race is significantly closer than the one the Democrats just released. What does that tell you?
Ross J. Quote the whole passage. It goes on to note that's four times as many as the next issue. By your logic, 90 percent didn't say the war in Iraq.
Lene B. Good point. Giffords was ineffective as a minority party in the Legislature. Why thing she'll be effective as a minority party in Congress.
Joann H. So no one called you for the poll, therefore something is amiss. A little self-important? Like clogging up a blog with a 36 paragraphs of outside opinion when a description and link would have been sufficient for those who want to read it.
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Grim Reaper Graf on his own... too damn funny. Guess the repug party thinks he smells of sulfur too.
GO GIFFORDS!
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liberals come in all parties.
they open their arms to anyone.
they hand out checks (SSI) to people who have never worked here and have not contributed one penny to social security.
they hand out checks to every illegal who has a baby in the usa.
the checks they are so busy handing out come from your tax dollars.
gabby will continue with this selling out of america. maybe she thinks she is a moderate, but her strings are pulled by liberals.
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OK, time to get a Republican poll of CD8 together so that it will be unbiased ... right. No, wait -- they already did that; that's why the RNCC pulled out. Reasonable people tried very hard to get a mainstream GOP candidate but HUFFMAN and HELLON just had to duke out their personal crap in public leaving us with a candidate that cannot win. Yes, that's right, GRAF cannot win CD8. Practical and moderate heads will prevail. He can mouth BORDER, BORDER, BORDER all he wants. It won't work.
The GRAF supporters can get out all the New Years noise makers they want but it won't help. They can cry RINO, LIBERAL, and whine hateful, disparaging things about other local congressmen. They can slam BUSH's (really KOLBE's) immigration reform plans that include the pragmatic but so dreaded GUEST WORKER program. It won't help. They can call GIFFORDS an airhead, slick, or shiny. It won't help.
The problem is that the solid party of Goldwater republicans has become overrun by the right wing -- the party is fragmented. They've been overrun by the "I want my ten commandment prayers in school, Jesus is knocking on the door, the GAYS will burn in hell" wing of the republican party. It won't work.
GRAF may be a nice guy, but we're in the 21st century --- he doesn't have much for sale that people want anymore. I want a multi-cultural diverse community. I don't want to live in an all-white, praise Jesus evolution is a lie neurotic fantasy. MY family values are important.
And by the way, KUDOS to JIM KOLBE for having the courage to withhold his support for GRAF. This had to be hard for him to do because he is an extremely loyal republican, especially given the short shrift that the BUSH administration has continually given him.
My precious vote will go to GIFFORDS. No question, no hesitation.
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Thank you JK
You took the words right out of my mouth.
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I'm with Gene & JK. Giffords may not be perfect, but she is not a Christian fanatic.
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it is the liberals who have been divisive and who have harmed this country with their give away programs.
gabby will continue to give away. she has no backbone and is just a puppet.
people who do not want change because the status quo is more convenient for them (as hiring illegals)will of course vote for gabby. she will make sure the status quo is maintained. and that they can go on hiring their illegal help.
most liberals live in gated communities, send their children to private schools, drive their overpriced volvos, and then pretend that they are for the poor. they have no problem giving away taxpayers' money.
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the christian fanatic is running for Govenor. Munsil will drag us back to the Salem witch trials.
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All that matters are the vote counts in November. Repubs are usually better at getting out their voters then the Dems.
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Republicans may or may not be better at getting voters out, but they're way ahead of the Democrats in election fraud.
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Paul #37's comment is inane, because the poll was limited to "likely voters," but the Star could have told readers what they mean by that term. Is it people who voted in the last general election, or the last midterm election?
Will the border be enough of an issue that "unlikely voters" will turn out for one candidate or the other?
And I'm still waiting for someone to answer the question: Has Kyl endorsed Graf? Has Graf endorsed Kyl?
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Graf supporters: Be not discouraged or disheartened. Gabby Giffords released a poll on September 20 showing her with a 19 point advantage. Today, four days after the Giffords poll, Randy Graf is only down by 12 points. That is a 7 point swing in 4 days. So, let me ask you and any Giffords supporters: Who has all of the momentum? If this insane rate of closing the gap: 7 more points every 4 days continues, Graf will be ahead in 8 days. I don’t expect that. But this race is very, very winnable for Graf. Another thing that is great news for Graf is that a lot of Graf’s momentum comes from people moving away from Gabby. Her poll 4 days ago showed her receiving 54% of the vote. Now she’s at 48% below the magic 50% number. This shows that as people really begin to know Gabby, they realize that she’s not all that great of a candidate and does not represent their values. She dropped 6 points in 4 days. That’s a huge loss of support.
One thing that disappoints me with the <i>Star</i> poll and could mean even better news for Graf is that this poll, just like the Giffords poll before it, still fails to show any specifics on the polling sample. If their poll sample does not match the makeup of the District, then the poll itself will not show what the real outcome will be. Without the internals, a poll is utterly useless. For all we know, out of the 600 people polled, Zimmerman - a Democrat - could have only interviewed 3 Republicans. Thus when they show that 2 out of 3 Republicans are sticking with Graf, they might actually mean it literally. We need to know the information on the polling sample in order to believe any of the numbers. There are 39% Republicans in the District and 34% Democrats. The rest are Independents and a handfull of Libertarians. If the Zimmerman poll does not follow these numbers, then the poll is meaningless.
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#35:"she will make sure the status quo is maintained. and that they can go on hiring their illegal help."
I don't want any illegal help--but I can't seem to avoid it.
I am sick and tired of non English speaking work crews showing up at my house and screwing up whatever project I've paid their company (landscaping, pool, paint, interior) to do and giving me sh*t eating grins while they do it.
My damn house should have a big old "MADE IN MEXICO OR SOME OTHER COUNTRY SOUTH OF THE US" sticker on the front of it. Because that's what it is and it's built like crap.
Aren't there any companies willing to hire Americans to do their contracting work?
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Ross J.-
Yes, Jon Kyl has endorsed Graf. And long ago, Graf endorsed and has always supported Jon Kyl.
---
And one more thing, I kind of failed to get to my whole point about momentum in politics. Momentum means everything! People like to vote for winners. Since Giffords support is dwindling, this is really good news for Randy Graf. Momentum in politics has a huge snowball effect.
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If the Red Star and Citizen Socialist rags weren't free reading on line, I wouldn't be reading them. Kinda like adult comic books. Gabby will never beat Randy. Iwouldn't believe a poll, nor much of anything else I read in the daily rags, if the paper came down from heaven endorsed by a note from Jesus.( That's Jee-sus, not Hay-sus). I only buy the Sunday paper because the T.V. guide is cheaper than the ones on the newstand. We used to be a "can-do" nation. We put a man on the moon even when people like the Red Star and Socialist Citizen, said it couldn't be done. Same with flying, Wright Bros. will never fly. Well we still don't have wings, but DUH! If we have the political will, we'll build the fence. It'll be more successful, and cheaper, than the big dig in Boston endorsed by good ole boy, Teddy Kennedy.
NUFF SAID!
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Jon Kyl: Where election fraud is Job 1!
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Tyler M. If it helps, go back and read the Star poll (also done by Zimmerman) before the primary election. You will see it was almost exactly on the mark. (Unlike some others that were being floated around at the time.) I suspect you'll find it's a cross-section of people who have a consistant voting record--ie, "likely voters."
Also, I don't believe there has been a 7 point swing since the Giffords poll. I believe the Giffords poll was done by her campaign and publically released for a reason. To create the impression of momentum and build a bandwagon effect. I believe the gap is a lot closer to 12 than 19.
For Graf, that has to be good news. The poll shows Giffords already has the solid support of Democrats. Republicans were far more fractured by their primary. Graf has six weeks to reel those disident Republicans back in. If he does, he can win because there are more R's than D's.
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yes but an endorsement by kyl aint gonna help. I know a lot of folks in cochise county and they are not favorable to graft or kyl.
They are pretty much PO'd by the whole bunch of pols. long on rhetoric and short on action. Just like last time they said kolby was done, but he won then.
I dont think kyl will win this go round, and if mcain runs in 08 I think
he will pull a gore here in az!
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Robert M.-
That’s exactly my point. In the Zimmerman survey before the Primary Election, they explained their polling sample:
“In each race, 400 registered voters who cast ballots in the 2004 primaries were polled by phone. Roughly 10 percent in each group were political independents. The majority — 81 percent — of those polled were from Pima County, 16 percent were from Cochise County and the rest were registered to vote in Pinal and Santa Cruz counties. The combined 800 voters polled for the head-to-head matchups translated to a margin of error of 3.5 percent.”
They skipped releasing this crucial information in their latest polling information. If we don’t know the specifics of the sample, we cannot be sure about the poll itself. In a poll of 600 Democrats, Giffords is likely to win handily. That’s what happened in the Primary. The same goes for Graf with Republicans. Now, in order to conduct a valid poll of the General Electorate, we need that poll to be representative of the District itself. The polling firm must be the one that provides that evidence. One reason that I can see the latest polling as evidence of Graf momentum is that neither the Giffords nor the Zimmerman poll today explains their polling sample. Both are done by Democratic polling firms as well. So, it is very possible that they were both done by the same biased standard. Regardless, the fact that the polling sample is not discussed in the Zimmerman poll should make Graf feel a lot more confident with his position.
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Robert M,
Diogenes--that would be Latin for conspiracy theorist? (You are misinformed).Every Arizona pollster who does political work is predominately involved with one side or the other. (Are their no honest pollsters in Arizona?)That's just the way it is. (Ok you settle for this).At least the Star told you where their pollster leaned, which isn't what most do. (please site example) The Star's poll says the race is significantly closer than the one the Democrats just released. (Please site poll reference).What does that tell you? (You have no credibility)
Unfortunate you process the statement as a conspiracy theory. Inteligent people would just recognize the fact that the pole may have a significantly larger margin for error!
A responsible report would print poll results form both sides.
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Tyler #40 Gabby Giffords released a poll on September 20 showing her with a 19 point advantage. Today, four days after the Giffords poll, Randy Graf is only down by 12 points.
If you throw out the undecideds and also-rans and just look at the 504 voters who chose Graf or Giffords, she's ahead by 16 points in the Star poll (58% to 42%).
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Ross J.-
Either way, Graf”s still closing the gap. He's got the momentum. Plus, you can't do what you just did anyway. The technique of throwing out the undecideds has always been frowned upon by reputable polling firms. Undecideds are too hard to gauge. Plus, they often go toward the candidate with the momentum. In this case, that would be Randy Graf. Many also tend to go against the establishment. This one will be tougher to gauge. It is widely known how well Graf has been able to show his anti-establishment bon-a-fides. The NRCC went against him in an open Primary, and Graf put a picture with himself and Bush's upside down to protest Bush’s immigration policy. Can Gabby do the same thing? She has always definitely been the Democratic establishment candidate. But Democrats are not in power, so this fact could help her and maybe hurt Graf. Although, I just explained why I don't believe that she will be the only one seen as an outsider. Even with these factors, undecided are very difficult to predict.
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It will come down to the independent vote, and most independents want secure borders and immigration enforcement.
Once that mission begins to strengthens, there will be less crowding in schools, less emergency room abuse, and more work for the citizens or legal immigrants.
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It blows my mind that a newspaper and television station would hire a politically biased research company to conduct a poll on a major local race. Zimmerman is joined at the hip with local Democrats -- as a consultant, pollster and even as a candidate. Spout all you want about the integrity of the poll, but it's ruined from the start.
It's the new management and out of town leaders at both the STar and KVOA. Ten years ago neither would have allowed Zimmerman to conduct an "unbiased" poll for them. The leaders knew where Zimmerman stood and how easily they could impact and effect the outcome.
Both the Star and KVOA should be apologizing to its readers and viewers for being so blantantly stupid to allow this to happen and not pull the plug before they both touted the results (lead story and front page).
The people of Tucson deserve better. On a heavily contested race like this, go to a completely unvarnished polling and research company. Maybe not even local. I bet Zimmerman used it same callers it's used for other Democrats here in Tucson. They know who is paying them. They know what needs to be done to make the Dems look good.
This is a journalistic embarrassment that both organizations should apologize for immediately.
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That consultant or whatever said Graf needs to shore up the Republican vote.
I think that is totally off base.
I believe there are two groups that a pro-borders candidate will never win the votes of, the left wing of the Democratic voters and the open borders wing of the Republican voters.
If there are 16% or so of the Republicans that don't support Graf, those have got to be the open borders folks it seems to me. For Graf to win their votes is about as likely as it is for Graf to win the votes of Ted Kennedy fans.
What Graf SHOULD do is go after the votes of pro-borders independents and Democrats.
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This poll does seem to make sense though.
Polls run by politicians tend to be very slanted in their favor. Polls run by partisan journalists tend to be slanted, but not as badly as those run by politicians.
So, if Giffords' poll says Graf is behind by 19 points, and this new poll shows he's behind by 12-13, probably the real truth is that he is behind by 8-9.
Which means he probably will lose, but he has a longshot chance.
One thing they ought to do. They should poll of those that feel immigration is the #1 issue, how many of those support Graf and how many support Giffords.
Because, based on all the other polls that have been done around the country in recent months, there is no evidence that there is any sizeable segment of the voting public that desperately wants illegal aliens to have amnesty and intends to cast their vote for a candidate that supports that.
I would guess that most of those who consider immigration the #1 issue are Graf supporters.
If so, that would indicate that Graf would be losing in a huge landslide to Giffords if it weren't for the immigration issue.
That issue looks like it won't put him over the top, but it does look like what keeping him at least in the game.
Since there are 435 members of the House, whether Graf wins or loses will largely be of just symbolic value with regard to the politics of immigration.
From the standpoint of a pro-borders supporter like myself, I find it fortunate that our side appears to have a great deal of political momentum, with the fence bill and all, and I don't think a Graf defeat would cut into that momentum very much.
One that is actually much bigger in importance is the Kean/Menendez race for the Senate in New Jersey.
That is one where our side has a much better chance, since Kean has been leading (albeit by a razor thin margin).
Menendez seems to suffer from a widespread image that he is a "lightweight", to the point where there was acutally discussion of whether the Democratic Party might give him the heave-ho and put someone else in there with more stature.
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Hank said:
"I dont think kyl will win this go round, and if mcain runs in 08 I think
he will pull a gore here in az"
I agree with you as far as McCain goes.
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William A. Clearly, blowing your mind would be a very very small explosion. Enough. Moving on.
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Reading all these comments make me laugh, because people are just so ridiculous
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Graf certainly has the momentum. When his first stop after the primary was Washington, to beg for money, they kicked him out so hard he's still gaining altitude.
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You know for a "Socialist Rag" The Star sure does seem to always attract a group of neo-con rednecks everytime it prints anything that isn't to the right of Goering.
You know I imagine most of you guys can't be over 40. How come you haven't enlisted yet to go fight your lord's war yet? The age I believe is 39 now for reserves 35 for active duty in the army. I hear they're even taking recruits with intelligence levels far below average so you folks have quite the sporting chance!
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Ross J-
"They kicked him out so hard" that he's going back to Washington DC this week for a political fundraiser hosted by Speaker of the House J. Dennis Hastert. It's best to know what your talking about before you say something. Or as the old saying goes "When people think you're ignorant; don't open your mouth if all it will do is remove any doubt."
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Some hilarious stuff her.
Having just seen the Weiss folks desperately try to spin reality to convince folks Weiss was ahead, despite every indication to the contrary, this has a familiar smell.
The poll Giffords released, and this poll, were actually taken in the same period, basically. This one from the 16-19th, the other from the 13-18th. Hard to see how the gap could close like that, by 7%, in one day. Graf is not likely to have that much momentum. So perhaps the polls just got different numbers, they are with the margin of error of each other.
I also have to point out that polls from just before the primary on the 12th showed Graf only down by 10% to both Giffords and Weiss. So he has either lost 3% or 9% over the ten days or so between the polls. Not exactly an exciting bit of news for Graf. Not really what one would call momentum.
And the Giffords poll shows that Graf has higher negatives than positives, 39% to 32%. While the negatives for Giffords are only at 18%. There just is no way a candidate wins with negatives more than 20% higher than their opponent.
These numbers, Graf only getting 67% of Republicans, losing by 30% with independants...there is just no way he wins with those numbers.
The national Republicans and Democrats pulled their money out of this race because it is not going to be close. Giffords has this one locked up.
It is also comical to see the switch here. For months Giffords faced a barrage of attacks calling her a closet Republican, a conservative who "voted with Huffman an astonishing, incredible, 90% of the time." To quote Weiss. Now suddenly we get to the general election and she is a closet liberal who will vote with Kennedy 100% of the time.
Name calling smears failed to work for Weiss, and I bet they will fail this time to. The attacks from both extremes also seem to be pretty good evidence that Giffords is a moderate, just like she claims.
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Gee, no one polled me. A solid lead? Yeah, maybe among those happy to spill their granola filled guts to the biased, liberal media. I work for a living and pay taxes. I want the kids that I am raising to live in a safe environment. The silent majority is fed up with paying for someone else's political correctness. There were those who had the guts to do something definitive and draft proposition 200. Graf will get my vote.
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Oh, yep, the liberal biased media. The same media that had over 400 pro-war guests on TV before we invaded Iraq, and precisely 4 anti-war. While the population was split 50/50.
See folks, this is how you identify an extremist whacko. The media is, as the above demonstrates, in fact highly biased towards the conservative side. Yet Joe claims that they are biased to the other side. In fact, every study says the opposite.
Another example is Global Warming, where over half the articles in the popular press claim there is a debate in the scientific community over whether it is happening or not. Meanwhile, not one single peer reviewed paper disputing the reality of Global Warming has been published in a scientific journal in the last decade.
Graf and his bunch make the Taliban look like liberal moderates.
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You know what is wrong with this country? We have become a group of knee jerk, "if you don't agree with my opinion you are insane", intolerant, judgemental freaks. The rest of the world is laughing at us just for this reason and this comment log is a prime example of why. Everyone is either a granola leftist or a right wing-nut. If everyone could get over themselves for even a minute and let their brain click in, they would see that the answers almost always lay somewhere in the middle. But no one seems to have the guts, courage or integrity to step up and admit that they do not align like a psycho fanatic with either extreme. Everyone would rather be an Ann Colture or a Michael Moore- always ready to spew venom, but with no clue or suggestion as to how to answer the problems we face..The War in Iraq, Illegal Immigration, Economy, Education and the list goes on. Vomiting vile comments is much easier and requires much less brain power than actually coming up with something that works. Neither candidate in this race is a good one, we are screwed either way. Giffords ideas regarding Immigration are ****ed at best and Graff is just a loonie, plain and simple. I do not know who I will vote for this time, but at least I care, and at least I am willing to listen and try to find an actual solution to our problems. The rest of you can keep playing "I am rubber..." until we become a third world country. Hope you are proud of yourselves.
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