Among other dangers this weekend, Arizona is likely to see a variety of well-executed defenses in Los Angeles.
Ben Howland’s man-to-man defense at UCLA has allowed opponents to shoot 43 percent from the field, but it gives up only 31.3 percent from three-point range while it has taken a Pac-10-leading 9.2 steals a game.
“They’re pretty bold and upfront,” Pennell says. They say “ `This is who we are, this is what we’re gonna do. Now you’ve got to beat it.’ Ben’s always been that way. He does a real good job with that. They’re not going to trick you. They’re coming right at you.”
Howland has also kept plugging willing and capable freshmen into the system, most notably Jrue Holiday, who climbed in DeMar DeRozan’s comfort zone on Sunday.
Then there’s USC coach Tim Floyd, who prefers a man-to-man, too, but is also known for zones and gimmick defenses.
He beat UCLA and nearly Memphis with a triangle-and-two last year, though UA guard Jawann McClellan took advantage of the gimmick defense’s emphasis on Chase Budinger and Jerryd Bayless to carry the Wildcats over USC in Los Angeles.
“It’s a tough team to know what to expect from,” Budinger said. “Coach Floyd does a good job of mixing things up with his defenses. You don’t know if they’re going to come out with a man, a zone, box-and-one, a triangle-and-two — he has all sorts of defenses.”
Here’s stats for UCLA and USC.
Good point about McClellan stepping up to defeat the triangle-2 last year. In the 1998 Regional Final, Michael Dickerson could not do the same against Rick Majerus’ version of the triangle-and-two (against whichever two of Bibby, Simon, and Terry were in the game), and of course Bramlett and Davison were not really scorers, especially versus Doleac. That game was my all-time low point as a Cat fan.
So this year, if USC brings that (against Hill and Budinger? … that’s kind of weird), it could give Horne and Wise a chance to shine if they can spot up and hit mid-range jumpers that the 3 “zone” guys can’t get out to cover.
Against UCLA, Wise must not let the defensive pressure lure him into his helter-skelter mode. This year’s passing game, if they just keep the ball moving and stay creative, is much better suited to go against Howland’s pressure than was the wooden pattern offense that KO imposed. More than UCLA, it was KO that took Bayless out of that Pauley game, IMO.
It’s the challenge of facing a lot of different styles that makes college hoops more interesting than the NBA, to me.
— Portland Catfan 01/13/2009 06:27 PM #
Portland, I agree with you. And like you that game was also my all time low, even lower than the loss to the Illini in the elite 8. But I remember with a few minutes left Olson leaned back, cracked a big smile and looked as if he was saying: “It was a great run.” It was a great run. But during the game, I was mad, shocked, depressed and many other lowly emotions.
— confused, maybe not 01/13/2009 07:08 PM #
If I was a bettin’ man, and indeed I am, I’d say:
UCLA 78
UA 54
— Nick 01/13/2009 07:20 PM #
Hell no! Come on Chi_cat, this blog wouldn’t be the same without you.
Is that sub-zero weather getting to you?
Seriously, you cant honestly believe UA will win this game.
— Nick 01/14/2009 11:42 AM #
I will bet it too, nick you are the worst poster on the board, its worth it IMO.
— chris from the oc 01/14/2009 03:15 PM #
Tuff D Part 1: UCLA
1. UCLA will double-team Jordan Hill if he tries to operate in the low post. Don’t use Hill that way. Let him set screens away from the ball to free up shooters, then he rolls to the basket to get rebound position. Whenever Hill can get an offensive board, he will have the best chance to score inside without being doubled.
2. UCLA will jump out to double team when UA sets screens on the ball. So don’t do that. Keep the floor spaced and keep the ball moving without dribbling. Use one dribble to set up a shot or a pass. Don’t dribble east-west or into traffic, especially Wise, since UCLA will feast on fast breaks generated by UA turnovers when the guards are not in position to get back.
3. Collison and Holiday will try to disrupt Wise and Budinger and/or to deny them the ball. UA should set solid weak side screens to let Budinger or Wise flash open for mid-range jumpers with Hill and Horne going for offensive rebounds.
I’m no coach (as you can easily see), but I’ve seen these features of the UCLA defensive scheme touted on the blogs here as reasons UA will struggle and/or suffer a blow-out. So I’m trolling for thoughts from you all about what Pennell et al can design to offset the problems UCLA defense will present.
— Portland Catfan 01/14/2009 04:34 PM #
Come on folks, you need a dose of reality. If they happen to lose by less than my prediction, I will be satisfied, yet you all depressed…see? I get some happiness in losses if they even show up that way.
But, so be it…straight up, if the Cats win, I will bow out…for the season. If they lose by less than my prediction, I am out for the month.
If they lose by more than my prediction…shame on thee for bringing it up!
Go Cats! (see, still a fan, but not silly and myopic)…real.
— Nick 01/14/2009 04:38 PM #
Something to consider . The CATS have not had a breakout road game all year. They are over due for it. Now Nick before you have a fit, i am not saying that we will win but the CATS are due to have two close games on the road, and play how they played KU and Gonzaga…. Now if they win both games great. Split that was what we needed, lose both who knows. CHI-CAT, i dont know about you but i am mulling about watching the game because of the 10PM CST start time………
— Trev In Kc 01/14/2009 05:46 PM #
Probability for Dummies? … more like “by Dummy”
Let’s say this UA team could win at Pauley 2 times out of 10 and that they could win at Galen 3 times out of 10. Then the odds of a UA sweep are 6%, the odds of a split are 38%. If you don’t like my hypotheticals, you could roll your own. But my point is I agree with those who will be satisfied with a split and move on from there. My heart is with the Cats, but I think they’ll have to play miraculously well, and get lucky, to do better than split. (And more often than not — 56% — they would suffer a pair of losses).
In the second half of the schedule, UA gets their Washington and Oregon trips, but with a similar simple model, I come up with 7% chance of going 4-0 there.
If 3-6 is optimistic for the final road record, the Cats would need to go 7-2 at home, which I think is not unreasonable if they can continue to improve. If they can reach 10-8, they may be able to squeak into the dance if they can also beat Houston and/or win a PAC-10 tournament game.
— Portland Catfan 01/14/2009 06:38 PM #
Memo to Chase Budinger:
Get some videos of Joe Alexander from the last half of last season. You can do all those things too. You are ready to take the next step; your game is ready to become mature. Play hard, play smart, do what you know how to do. The NBA scouts will notice.
It’s not too early to start tomorrow night. In fact, you are on the way after last week.
Bear Down, man.
— Portland Catfan 01/14/2009 06:48 PM #
Portland, players and coaches don’t read your memos and the rest of us aren’t really interested in your in depth coaching strategy.
As Cowherd likes to say, if you are writing notes to players on blogs you should evaluate your life.
Sorry man.
— dj 01/14/2009 08:46 PM #
No problem, “dj”
Since you speak for the community, maybe you can list the topics that are acceptable.
Who’s “Cowherd?” Is he your philosopher of choice?
How can you have imagined that “memo to budinger” was meant literally?
Sorry, only curious.
— Portland Catfan 01/14/2009 09:20 PM #
Portland,
I defintely do not speak for the community…in fact my wife doesn’t even listen to me. But, as a sports fan, even she would vomit reading personal pleas on blogs to players and coaches.
Who is Cowherd?!
http://espnradio.espn.go.com/espnradio/show?showId=theherd
And I could care less if the memo was meant literal or not…the personal notes to players from fans just has to go.
— dj 01/14/2009 10:42 PM #
Portland- Thanks for clarifying in post #7 that you are no coach. I would have never guessed.
— andre 01/15/2009 07:48 AM #
What’s with jumping on Portland’s sh*t??? The guy was just laying out some ideas and asking what the people here thought about them. He wasn’t asking for a personal JDAM up his butt. Give him you opinion on his ideas. Knock of the personal crap. Sheesh. And right before game day too. Unbelievable.
— WildCatinFlag 01/15/2009 08:40 AM #
I was dlighted to see the front of the sports page in this AM’s Star. I am going to say a few words about Reggie Geary dj, and if u dont like that idea log off. Reggie is a true AZ booster and was a fine player here. I hope he gets the coaching chance he is working toward. A personal— a while back the BB team opened some Sat. practices prior to the season. On a whim I called the BB office on one Sat morning to see if that day was open. Reggie Geary answered the phone, identified himself and gave me a NO for that day but a schedule of what Saturdays coming up would be open for specs.
He even referred to me as sir. Just seems a c redit to the University and a real gentleman. He could play great defense too.
— Larry 01/15/2009 10:19 AM #
Voice,
Some of us have to work on Friday. Unfortunately I get up around 5am. So sorry to disappoint, but I like more than 4 hours of solid sleep. We’re all fortunate enough to be able to read Bruce’s article the next day.
DJ & Andre,
I like that you both are willing to post personal attacks while not having the “testicular verility” (as our lovely govenor calls it) to post your email along with your post.
Why the sudden beatdown of portland? They were good questions. The only problem is that no onw really has an answer to them.
— Chi_cat 01/15/2009 10:34 AM #
Voice if you read my post i was mulling over watching the game because like Chi-Cat said i like more more than 3 1/2 hrs sleep, i am up @430 most days to go workout. And i hate staying up so late to be PISSED ie: the stanford game and not sleep well at all. But knowing me ill end up watching it anyway.
— Trev In Kc 01/15/2009 10:48 AM #
Ignore the bad mouthing, Portland. You’re a good man. What’s happening with Bayless? Is he getting any minutes?
— Houk 01/15/2009 12:00 PM #
I like portland’s comments and thoughts also; what is the story on Bayless as u see it Portland?
— Larry 01/15/2009 12:14 PM #
Hey Portland – was that you that posted a link to a Bayless story the other day? If not, do you have it?
Our Central Time Zone friends need their rest like the rest of us. I hear you KC, if you watch the first of it .. you’ll be hooked. Plus you’ll jinx us if you turn it off. :)
— wildcatinflag 01/15/2009 12:34 PM #
Chi Cat…
Recommending someone not post personal pleas to players is hardly a personal attack. Perhaps you need the “testicular virility” (plese note spelling when you mock someone).
Also, you would be a complete moron to post your personal email on a public sports blog. Why don’t you throw in your credit card # and home address while youre at it?
— dj 01/15/2009 12:55 PM #
ChiCat- Same as dj I see no personal attack in my post either… Must I now defend my “verility” because of some light sarcasm that was not even directed at you?
— andre 01/15/2009 01:28 PM #
DJ,
Lifes too short to copy and paste my entries into word for a spell check. Do you want to correct my punctuation as well? It was pretty obvious that he didn’t expect his “pleas” were going to be read by any of the players or coaches. They would be dumb to read this blog.
Andre,
What was the value in your post? About the same as the honor of my governor. NOW THATS SARCASM!
Trev,
I know what you mean. After the stanford game, I had the worst night of sleep too. And if I watch tipoff, I’m watching til the end.
— Chi_cat 01/15/2009 04:19 PM #
I thought Portland brought up a valid point. Now let’s get back to basketball with the UCLA game. We really need the Big 3 to step up tonight. It would also be nice to see our bench finally contribute. Go Cats.
— Button Salmon 01/15/2009 04:30 PM #
Cmon guys, watch the game! I’m going to stay up here in Missouri!
— Darren 01/15/2009 05:34 PM #
Ok Ok, you guys twisted my arm Darren, and wildcatinflag,I am gonna watch the game you’ll have to do so to now Chi-Cat!!…..GO Cats!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
— Trev in Kc 01/15/2009 06:09 PM #
Some asked about Bayless. Here’s the Oregonian Blazer site with lots of current items, many re: Bayless.
http://www.oregonlive.com/blazers/
To summarize, Bayless is highly regarded by coaches, management, media, and fans. He has worked hard, never complained, brought high energy whenever he has been called upon. He started the year as the #3 point guard behind Steve Blake and Sergio Rodriguez. He also started as the #3 off-guard after Brandon Roy and fellow rookie Rudy Fernandez. Lately, Bayless has been getting minutes at the 2 spot while Roy has been out for a few games. Steve Blake just suffered a separated shoulder, so now Bayless will get some of those available minutes as well. Nobody thinks he’s a “pure” point guard, and nobody thinks he should try to play like Steve Blake (who’s been having a great year). Jerryd is expected to bring energy, good defense, ability to make something happen at the end of the shot clock, and ongoing improvement.
The fans at the Rose Garden love this team, and Bayless is one of the favorites. He is still seen as an important piece of what is hoped to be a bright future for the franchise.
— Portland Catfan 01/15/2009 06:44 PM #
I’m happy to see that Cat fans in all time zones are doing what it takes to watch the game tonight. Here’s hoping your sacrifices will not be in vain.
— Portland Catfan 01/15/2009 06:47 PM #
“Cowherd”:
The guy was a local TV sportscaster before he landed his radio gig. He was not particularly good or bad, just short-tenured. Who knew he would go and generate his own ditto-heads?
— Portland Catfan 01/15/2009 06:52 PM #
Bad Calls on both jordan and horne..
— Trev in Kc 01/15/2009 09:32 PM #
Okay, 12 minutes left and we are down 21. All you guys in the Central Time Zone (or worse) .. get some sleep. It’s not you who have “jinxed” us. :)
— wildcatinflag 01/15/2009 10:30 PM #
28…I would never waste my time to cut and paste your drivel. I simply am educated and know how to spell.
— dj 01/16/2009 10:22 PM #