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Will North Carolina’s win over Rice be the Tar Heels’ last of 2007?

Here we go again. Oregon State and North Carolina face off for the CWS championship.

As usual, the series didn’t go as I had predicted. Even though North Carolina finished at the top of Mudville’s Top 10, I had little faith in the Tar Heels.

After the regionals, I said North Carolina wouldn’t make it to the CWS. Wrong.

Then the Heels earned their berth and eliminated Louisville. Yet, I still maintained they were doomed to fall to Rice. Wrong.

And the Beavers? They had to go up against the Omaha-darling Anteaters, who had knocked off Fullerton and Arizona State. No chance, I thought. OK, maybe I gave them a chance, but I really thought Irvine would make it past Oregon State. Wrong. For the third time, wrong.

Last year, when it came down to the finals and I was given 50% odds of getting it right, I was able to make a prediction that held up: Beavers in three.

That was then, this is now. I’ve got to rethink the situation. The teams are the same, generally speaking, but the situation is vastly different. Last year the Beavers came out of the losers bracket and beat the Heels, who had cruised into the final with a 3-0 record. Last year neither team was really given much hope of winning it all. This year both have been considered legitimate contenders.

What is the motivation this year, and which motivating factor is worth more?

Oregon State expects to win it all. They have refrained from celebrating their wins because they won’t be satisfied with anything less than a championship.

North Carolina wants to atone for last year’s season-ending two-game losing streak. How much did it hurt North Carolina to watch Oregon State celebrate after the Heels were only one win away from winning the title?

Now UNC gets to face OSU again with a chance to make the Beavers watch the celebration through tears. That’s powerful stuff. If heart and desire were all that counted, I’d pick North Carolina.

But there are at least two games to be played. Heart and desire do count, but they can’t be counted on to hit the ball and make the plays.

So, let’s look at the stats.

2007 CWS record: Oregon State 3-0; North Carolina 4-1.
Offense: OSU 22 runs (7.3 per game); UNC 28 (5.6).
Defense: OSU 9 runs allowed (3 per game); UNC 25 (5).

Starting pitchers (exluding relief appearances)
Total innings: OSU 20.0 (6.2 average); UNC 22.2 (4.2).
ERA: OSU 2.70; UNC 5.96.
Hits allowed: OSU 11; UNC 23.
Strikeouts: OSU 12; UNC 15.
HRs allowed: OSU 1; UNC 1.
WHIP: OSU 1.05; UNC 1.28.

Just for grins last year, I recalculated the OSU starting pitchers’ stats without Dallas Buck’s opening loss. This year North Carolina had a poor start in a loss, but I won’t be throwing out that start to see how the Heels’ stats improve because they also had a poor start in a win.

So, it’s prediction time. (Drumroll, please.)

Beavers fans, get out your brooms. Oregon State will sweep North Carolina.